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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Fisherman25" data-source="post: 144772" data-attributes="member: 393">000FXUS63 KBIS 220931AFDBIS<a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=Area%20Forecast%20Discussion" target="_blank">Area Forecast Discussion</a>National Weather Service Bismarck ND331 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2016.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)Issued at 327 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2016Currently...mild pacific high pressure encompassed much of thewestern US, with low pressure over central/northern Canada movingeast. This has set up a fast westerly upper/mid/low level <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=flow" target="_blank">flow</a>across the Northern Plains. West to southwest winds across westernand central ND ranged from mainly 5 to 20 mph, and were mixing thelower <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=atmosphere" target="_blank">atmosphere</a> and keeping temperatures in the teens and 20s.Warm <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=advection" target="_blank">advection</a> today from the southwest should allow temperatures torise into the mid and upper 30s in the southwest...and in the lower30s north and east of the Missouri River.Tonight a cold <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=front" target="_blank">front</a> extending from the central/northern Canadianlow moves southeast and approaches northwestern ND towards daybreakFriday. Light winds and fairly clear skies should allow temperaturesto drop to 5 to 15 across western and much of central ND..LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)Issued at 327 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2016A potential major Christmas winter storm highlights the long termforecast...with significant accumulating snow, strong winds, and<a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=blowing%20snow" target="_blank">blowing snow</a> in the forecast. A <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=blizzard" target="_blank">blizzard</a> <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=watch" target="_blank">watch</a> will be issued forwestern and central ND from Christmas (Sunday) morning through noonon Monday.On Friday a fast-moving <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=upper%20level" target="_blank">upper level</a> <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=shortwave" target="_blank">shortwave</a> and associated cold<a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=front" target="_blank">front</a> will sweep southeast across ND. High temperatures will beseasonable with highs mainly in the 20s and lows Friday night around5 to 10 above zero.Brief <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=upper%20level" target="_blank">upper level</a> ridging occurs early Saturday before southwest<a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=flow" target="_blank">flow</a> develops Saturday night (Christmas Eve). This is in response tothe longwave <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=trough" target="_blank">trough</a> that arrives at the west coast Friday night andcontinues <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=deepening" target="_blank">deepening</a> as it begins crossing the Rockies on Saturday.As the <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=trough" target="_blank">trough</a> continues to deepen, expect an <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=upper%20level" target="_blank">upper level</a> low toclose off near the base and lift north northeast into thecentral and northern plains states. <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=Cyclogenesis" target="_blank">Cyclogenesis</a> will develop anassociated surface low on the <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=lee" target="_blank">lee</a> side of the Rockies. Chances oflight precipitation will begin in northwestern and north centralND Saturday afternoon with the initial arrival of <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=shortwave" target="_blank">shortwave</a>energy and lifting along a low level frontal boundary that setsup across northern ND.As we move into the overnight hours on Saturday and into Sunday(Christmas Day), the surface low will continue to deepen as it liftsnortheast into South Dakota. Over the last several runs, models havecome into better agreement regarding precipitation location, withgrowing confidence that this has the potential to become awidespread and significant winter storm across the northern plains.Confidence has increased again with the 00z model suite for today`sforecast package. We think there is a better than 50% chance ofsignificant snowfall, strong winds, and <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=blowing%20snow" target="_blank">blowing snow</a> over most, ifnot all, of western and central ND.The GEFS plumes continue to suggest 0.8 to 1 inch of liquid precipat Bismarck and 1 to 1.2 inches at Jamestown. A widespread area of6+ inches of accumulating snow is forecast Saturday night throughMonday morning. The strongest winds are forecast to occur onChristmas Day in the afternoon, and especially Christmas night(Sunday night) before decreasing gradually on Monday.The storm will depart the region by late Monday, with colderconditions on the back side. The cold will be short lived, astemperatures will <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=likely" target="_blank">likely</a> moderate again by the middle of the workweek.&&.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)Issued at 1216 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2016Expect <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=VFR" target="_blank">VFR</a> conditions at all sites through the period. A west tosouthwest surface <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=flow" target="_blank">flow</a> should persist through Thursday evening.Strong west winds aloft will create some low level wind <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=shear" target="_blank">shear</a> thismorning.&&.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...<a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=Blizzard" target="_blank">Blizzard</a> <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=Watch" target="_blank">Watch</a> from Sunday morning through Monday morning forNDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.&&$$SHORT TERM...JVLONG TERM...JVAVIATION...JV</blockquote>

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