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<blockquote data-quote="Maddog" data-source="post: 468119" data-attributes="member: 5355"><p>Wow:</p><p></p><h4><strong>The Flow Math: Small Percentages, Big Numbers</strong> </h4><p>It only takes <strong>a sliver of global capital</strong> to transform this market. Consider two lenses: </p><p></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>U.S. near-cash liquidity:</strong> Money market funds, demand deposits, currency in circulation, and unused credit lines add up to <strong>tens of trillions</strong>. A mere <strong>1%</strong> rotation would swamp available silver at current prices. </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Global asset base:</strong> When you tally global currency, bonds, and equities, you reach on the order of <strong>hundreds of trillions</strong>. A <strong>1%</strong> rebalance into precious metals is measured in <strong>trillions</strong>, not billions. Silver simply cannot absorb that kind of demand without a <strong>step-change in price</strong> and, crucially, a <strong>shrinking GSR</strong> as investors crowd into the thinner market. </li> </ul><p>This is why Mike frames <strong>$10,000 gold</strong> and <strong>$500 silver</strong> (at <strong>20:1</strong>) as not just possible but <em>coherent</em> outcomes under a broad, global reweighting into monetary assets. </p><p></p><h4><strong>“But Won’t the Exchanges Clamp Down?”</strong> </h4><p>They’ll try—because they always do. Expect familiar tactics on the futures complex: <strong>margin hikes</strong>, tighter <strong>position limits</strong>, rule tweaks that force deleveraging during sharp moves. These steps can knock price and sentiment around in the short term. Historically, however, policy friction loses against <strong>physical scarcity plus real money demand</strong> during the terminal phase of a bull market. That’s when the ratio can sprint lower in a hurry. </p><p></p><h4><strong>Sentiment, Then Stampede</strong> </h4><p>A revealing anecdote from Mike: in the early 2000s, he was buying silver around <strong>$4–$5</strong> and coin shops were empty. Fast-forward to the mid-$40s today and the <strong>retail bid is still just a trickle</strong>—far from manic. The stampede tends to arrive <strong>after</strong> new highs and breathless coverage. If history rhymes, that’s when monetary demand collides with a thinned-out float and the <strong>GSR reprices in weeks, not years</strong>.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Maddog, post: 468119, member: 5355"] Wow: [HEADING=3][B]The Flow Math: Small Percentages, Big Numbers[/B] [/HEADING] It only takes [B]a sliver of global capital[/B] to transform this market. Consider two lenses: [LIST] [*][B]U.S. near-cash liquidity:[/B] Money market funds, demand deposits, currency in circulation, and unused credit lines add up to [B]tens of trillions[/B]. A mere [B]1%[/B] rotation would swamp available silver at current prices. [*][B]Global asset base:[/B] When you tally global currency, bonds, and equities, you reach on the order of [B]hundreds of trillions[/B]. A [B]1%[/B] rebalance into precious metals is measured in [B]trillions[/B], not billions. Silver simply cannot absorb that kind of demand without a [B]step-change in price[/B] and, crucially, a [B]shrinking GSR[/B] as investors crowd into the thinner market. [/LIST] This is why Mike frames [B]$10,000 gold[/B] and [B]$500 silver[/B] (at [B]20:1[/B]) as not just possible but [I]coherent[/I] outcomes under a broad, global reweighting into monetary assets. [HEADING=3][B]“But Won’t the Exchanges Clamp Down?”[/B] [/HEADING] They’ll try—because they always do. Expect familiar tactics on the futures complex: [B]margin hikes[/B], tighter [B]position limits[/B], rule tweaks that force deleveraging during sharp moves. These steps can knock price and sentiment around in the short term. Historically, however, policy friction loses against [B]physical scarcity plus real money demand[/B] during the terminal phase of a bull market. That’s when the ratio can sprint lower in a hurry. [HEADING=3][B]Sentiment, Then Stampede[/B] [/HEADING] A revealing anecdote from Mike: in the early 2000s, he was buying silver around [B]$4–$5[/B] and coin shops were empty. Fast-forward to the mid-$40s today and the [B]retail bid is still just a trickle[/B]—far from manic. The stampede tends to arrive [B]after[/B] new highs and breathless coverage. If history rhymes, that’s when monetary demand collides with a thinned-out float and the [B]GSR reprices in weeks, not years[/B]. [/QUOTE]
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