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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Allen" data-source="post: 220424" data-attributes="member: 389">That is a legit question.  The thing you have to understand with that question though is how much evidence do you need before you start calling for 300, 400, 600 percent of normal over a given time period?  It takes quite the set of cajones to walk out on that branch. The bottom line is that while the weather forecasting has indeed gotten a hell of a lot better over the past 20 years, the reality is anything out more than a few days is still subject to a heck of a lot of uncertainty.  Yep, even when the meteorologists are talking about some significant storm 5-7 days out, the reality is their models are probably plus/minus 300 miles on placement, 24-36 hours on timing, and 50-150 percent on intensity.  When you use that kind of uncertainty on volume of water to be placed on the planet's surface, you get some really wonky results.  Which makes the hydro people at the mercy of NWS weather forecasts. Even on the Yellowstone/Missouri watersheds, you miss the centroid of the storm by 75 miles and you put the majority of the water in the wrong watershed, its even more problematic here in ND where 15 miles puts 90% of the water in the Heart River vs the Knife River watershed.  The bottom line here is that the Corps can only account for the water in the system, and not that speculated on by doomsayers like Obi Wan.  To live on either extreme of the spectrum in forecasts is a recipe for disaster.Funny thing is, I am betting on the Yellowstone to be on the bottom end of its normal by the end of summer.  Losing its snowpack as early as it has makes it really susceptible to a 1-2 week cool and dry period.- - - Updated - - -Water supply and about 5 other purposes.  If it was built solely for flood protection, it would be a dry dam.- - - Updated - - -Right!- - - Updated - - -Well, at least you're not wrong on the geography quiz.- - - Updated - - -Stick to Optimax.- - - Updated - - -Discharge of 60,000 at Garrison, add in Knife, Painted Woods, Hay Creek, and Square Butte to get to the actual flow in Bismarck/Mandan. 13.1 is a better estimate of stage in Bismarck.Note, that is still 1.4 ft below flood stage.</blockquote>

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