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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Sluggo" data-source="post: 153924" data-attributes="member: 667">From: <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=BIS&product=ESF&site=bis" target="_blank">http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=BIS&product=ESF&site=bis</a>...Flood Outlook Highlights...This issuance of the monthly probabilistic hydrologic outlook includesthe vast majority of the spring flood season in its effective timeperiod. Accordingly, this is the first good look at the overall risk tothe region for widespread flooding. In the below tables, all forecastsites have at least normal levels of flood risk with many sites beingwell above normal. There is a pattern hidden in the below tables, andit mimics the existing snowpack very well. Forecast sites in the upperpart of their respective basins, such as Manning on the Knife River andRegent on the Cannonball are very much near normal. This is becausethe snowpack in the southwestern corner of North Dakota is not veryimpressive; that region has between 2 and 2.5 inches of waterequivalent on the ground. Contrast that with the downstream sites onthose same river basins and risk of flooding climbs very quickly withbetween 4 and 5.5 inches of water equivalent in the lower half of thebasin. Looking farther east and north, streams like Beaver Creek,Apple Creek, and the upper James River basin are all holding between4 and 5.5 inches of water equivalent. This is well above normal andputs much of the area in the top 10 snowiest winters up to this pointin time.Importantly, there is still plenty of winter left for the snow toeither disappear due to sublimation, or for additional snow to add towhat has quickly become a memorable winter. The take home message toremember is that there is already enough water on the countryside assnow to put the risk of spring flooding at well above normal levels.The February 16th issuance of the Spring Flood and Water ResourcesOutlook will provide the best assessment of the risk prior to the onsetof the spring flood season.</blockquote>

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