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<blockquote data-quote="Allen" data-source="post: 178195" data-attributes="member: 389">Average is a horrible way to look at precip in ND.&nbsp; In reality, it is not a &quot;normal&quot; distribution, it is skewed.&nbsp; So in all cases, the &quot;average&quot;, or better put, the statistical Mean is higher than the Median (where half the data points are above and half are below).&nbsp; In ND, the monthly Means tend to be around 0.2 - 0.3 inches higher than the Median.&nbsp; What this says is that more than half the time we are below average.The math and logic behind why this is true is fairly straight forward. While you can never get below zero in precip received, there is no mathematical limit on the upper end.&nbsp; So the few years like 1993 where the Bismarck area received 13.75 inches of rain in July are really pulling the Mean up, while the few years we've gotten 0.1 inches, just can't pull the Mean down far enough when you are talking about a Mean of roughly 2.3 inches.Thus, if you use the &quot;average&quot; as your measuring stick for defining drought, you will find that you are in a drought more often than not.Like I've been known to say, it's tough to be sympathetic to anyone trying to dryland farm watermelons in ND when 25% of the time you should EXPECT less than 1.25 inches of moisture in July.&nbsp; This is a risk management decision.Interesting trivia, but it takes about 3,000 gallons of water to raise a bushel of corn.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Allen, post: 178195, member: 389"] Average is a horrible way to look at precip in ND. In reality, it is not a "normal" distribution, it is skewed. So in all cases, the "average", or better put, the statistical Mean is higher than the Median (where half the data points are above and half are below). In ND, the monthly Means tend to be around 0.2 - 0.3 inches higher than the Median. What this says is that more than half the time we are below average. The math and logic behind why this is true is fairly straight forward. While you can never get below zero in precip received, there is no mathematical limit on the upper end. So the few years like 1993 where the Bismarck area received 13.75 inches of rain in July are really pulling the Mean up, while the few years we've gotten 0.1 inches, just can't pull the Mean down far enough when you are talking about a Mean of roughly 2.3 inches. Thus, if you use the "average" as your measuring stick for defining drought, you will find that you are in a drought more often than not. Like I've been known to say, it's tough to be sympathetic to anyone trying to dryland farm watermelons in ND when 25% of the time you should EXPECT less than 1.25 inches of moisture in July. This is a risk management decision. Interesting trivia, but it takes about 3,000 gallons of water to raise a bushel of corn. [/QUOTE]

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