Beef prices going up????



Rowdie

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We have purchased directly from a rancher annually for many years. It is an easy process that provides great quality beef tailored to the cuts we enjoy. Have wondered why the ranchers don't attempt to scale up with local processors to meet demand rather that continue to rely on larger packing operations.
^^^^THIS 1000%^^^^^
We need more local butchers. I'm not sure but I think they've made a lot of inspection BS so that this doesn't happen
 

lunkerslayer

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^^^^THIS 1000%^^^^^
We need more local butchers. I'm not sure but I think they've made a lot of inspection BS so that this doesn't happen
I agree but i believe a lot of butcher shops no longer take in livestock to be processed, atleast the ones around here dont. You cant even find a butcher that will debone deer meat anymore, its all got to be done prior. And ranchers dont want the hassle of dealing with people who want to buy directly. Now Minnesota is a whole different place, there are way more full service butcher shops especially around the Detroit lakes area. Seems to be a butcher shop in many of the largers town in that area.
 

Fritz the Cat

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Some years ago the legislature passed laws relaxing some regs on cottage industry for pies, pickles etc. Meat is different. Not much room for error. When the idea was floated to include meat products a bit in that cottage industry Bill, the legislators and public said no thank you.

You can take ground meat into a business/butcher shop and have sausage, or something made but it is not for resale. Custom Exempt. If you want to sell a product it has to start with a live kill floor and meat inspector. The carcass gets a stamp called a bug. Most local businesses purchase it that way in a box. It is chilled. Chilled meat is preferred over frozen. We all know why. However, chilled meat doesn't have that long of a life.

Everything turns into an assembly line. If a rancher doesn't have access into that pipeline, then they are on the outside looking in. Below are the only live kill floors in North Dakota. Call any one of them a tell them you have a finished animal ready to go. Go.... as in right now. Not going to happen. They are booked six months to a year out.


North Dakota Meat Processors​

Heart of Dakota Packing and Wollman Ranch are not licensed meat processing establishments

STATE SLAUGHTER​

These establishments slaughter livestock and may process meat products under regulated inspection. Products contain the state mark of inspection and are eligible to be wholesaled within North Dakota. Some State Slaughter plants also provide custom exempt slaughter and/or processing services.
COMPANYBOX / ADDRESSCITYSTATEZIP
BOWDON MEAT PROCESSINGPO BOX 60BOWDONND58418
BARTON MEATS INC.1020 N 11TH STCARRINGTONND58421
MAPLE VALLEY LOCKERS INC.218 4TH AVEENDERLINND58027
MYERS MEATS & SPECIALTIES, INC.1 CESSNA DRGARRISONND58540
SCHWEITZER'S GOURMET MEATS23881 MOFFIT RDMOFFITND58560
MEMA'S MEATS28525 86TH AVE NWBERTHOLDND58718
CUSTOM KUT MEAT INC.271 66TH AVE NECARRINGTONND58421
PEARSON'S GREEN ACRES11050 318 AVE NEWILTONND58579
1481 MEATS INC692 81ST ST NUPHAMND58789
LUCY STARZ, LLC14911 29TH ST SEAMENIAND58004
NODAK MEATS, LLC2528 37TH ST SESTEELEND58482


FEDERAL SLAUGHTER​

These establishments slaughter livestock and may process meat products under regulated inspection. Products contain the USDA mark of inspection and are eligible to be wholesaled in all states within the United States. Some Federal Slaughter plants also provide custom exempt slaughter and/or processing services.
COMPANYBOX / ADDRESSCITYSTZIP
CASSELTON COLD STORAGEPO BOX 368CASSELTONND58012
RHINO MEAT PROCESSING LLC112 1ST AVE NESMONDND58332
FAIRMOUNT LOCKERSPO BOX 151FAIRMOUNTND58030
NDSU, ANIMAL SCIENCE DEPT.PO BOX 6050, DEPT 7630FARGOND58108
LANGDON LOCKERS324 6TH STLANGDONND58249
NORTH AMERICAN BISON, LLCPO BOX 672NEW ROCKFORDND58356
6 IN 1 MEATS, LLC401 SOUTH 1ST STNEW SALEMND58563
THE BUTCHER SHOP, INC.421 3RD ST SOAKESND58474
VALLEY MEAT SUPPLY1269 W MAIN STVALLEY CITYND58072
SPRUCE HILL MEATS, LLC8556 147TH AVE SWBOWMANND 58623
YELLOWSTONE RIVER BEEF6 E DAKOTA PARKWAYWILLISTONND58801
WHALEN'S MEAT PACKING LLC9214 HIGHWAY 21MOTTND58646
KRAMLICH - DEEDE MEATS510 SCHOOL ST SEMEDINAND58467
 


KDM

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Had some hogs butchered in the past weeks and was $100 bucks for kill/disposal and 80 cents a pound carcass weight for processing. Came to about a dollar a pound live weight for processing. 250 lb hog was 232 bucks packaged and in the freezer. Keep in mind hogs are 250-350 right off the farm. Anything brined is extra like bacon and ham. Meat is expensive no matter how you slice it.
 

tikkalover

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$426M Tyson Beef Collapse Shuts Nebraska’s Biggest Plant—Entire Town Loses 4,900 Workers
Tyson Foods officially announced the permanent closure of its massive beef processing facility in Lexington, Nebraska. This decisive move will result in the elimination of approximately 3,200 jobs when the gates close in January 2026.
Executives stated that shrinking cattle supplies made the closure inevitable, marking a devastating end to a factory that has anchored the local economy for over three decades.

The restructuring efforts extend well beyond Nebraska, impacting operations across the company's beef network. Tyson is simultaneously reducing its Amarillo, Texas, facility to a single daily shift, affecting an additional 1,700 workers.

When combined, these aggressive measures impact nearly 4,900 employees total, effectively removing about 9% of the company’s total beef slaughter capacity in a single strategic maneuver.

This shutdown represents a significant turning point for the "Big Four" meatpackers, who control 85% of the American market. After years of maintaining excess capacity to capture market share, the industry is finally contracting.

Tyson is the first major player to blink, acknowledging that the current agricultural cycle can no longer support the massive infrastructure built during boom times.

Recent financial reports highlight the severe economic pressure driving this decision. Tyson’s beef segment reported a shocking adjusted operating loss of $426 million for the 2025 fiscal year.

This represents a dramatic collapse for a division that was historically the company’s primary profit engine, forcing leadership to take immediate, drastic action to stop the significant financial bleeding.

The corporate outlook for the coming fiscal year offers little hope for immediate recovery. Tyson projects its beef segment will lose an additional $400 million to $600 million in fiscal 2026.

With operational costs rising by billions of dollars year-over-year, the company determined that it simply cannot afford to keep older, less efficient plants running while bleeding cash every quarter.

Despite the devastating news for workers, financial markets reacted positively to the restructuring plan. Tyson’s stock price climbed approximately 7% following the announcement, as investors welcomed the focus on efficiency.

Analysts view the capacity reduction as a necessary correction that will ultimately improve margins at the remaining plants by eliminating the overhead costs associated with underutilized facilities.

The fundamental driver of this collapse is an unprecedented shortage of livestock. The U.S. cattle herd has plummeted to 86.7 million head, hitting its lowest level in over seventy years.

Persistent drought conditions across the Great Plains withered pastures and spiked feed prices, forcing ranchers to liquidate their herds rather than face bankruptcy, leaving packers with empty feedlots.

Rebuilding the national herd is a slow biological process that cannot be artificially accelerated. Because ranchers must retain female cattle for breeding instead of sending them to slaughter, the immediate beef supply will tighten even further.

Experts warn that meaningful inventory recovery will not occur until 2027, ensuring that processing plants will continue fighting for scarce livestock.

The scarcity of available cattle has driven purchase prices to record highs, crushing processor margins. Tyson reported that its cost of goods sold increased by nearly $2 billion, primarily driven by the high cost of livestock.

With too many factories competing for a shrinking pool of animals, the industry reached a breaking point where closing plants became the only viable financial option.

For the small community of Lexington, the closure is nothing short of an economic catastrophe. The plant employs nearly one-third of the city's 11,000 residents, serving as the region's financial heartbeat.

Local leaders described the announcement as a "gut punch," noting that every business, from car dealerships to grocery stores, relies heavily on the wages generated within the plant.

The closure threatens to unravel decades of unique demographic growth in rural Nebraska. The plant attracted thousands of immigrant workers over the course of thirty years, creating a diverse community that is now nearly 50% Hispanic.

Families who moved there for stable union jobs now face displacement, threatening to hollow out the town as workers are forced to move elsewhere.

The local school district is bracing for a potential exodus of students next semester. Administrators estimate that up to half of the 3,000 enrolled students could leave if their parents relocate for work.

Such a drastic decline in enrollment would severely reduce state funding, potentially leading to school closures and exacerbating the long-term economic disaster facing the community.

American consumers are feeling the pain alongside the workers, though in a different way. Beef prices at grocery stores have surged to record highs, with ground beef surpassing $6 per pound.

While packers lose money due to operational inefficiencies, families are paying 17% more for steaks than last year, creating a painful disconnect between corporate losses and checkout prices.

Despite these soaring prices, consumer appetite for beef remains surprisingly resilient across the country. Americans spent over $40 billion on fresh beef in 2024, despite inflation, refusing to cut back significantly.

However, this strong demand was not enough to save the Lexington plant, as the structural costs of the cattle shortage simply outweighed the revenue from higher prices.

As the January deadline looms, thousands of workers face a difficult and uncertain future. Tyson has promised job fairs and relocation assistance to other facilities, but moving requires uprooting entire families.

For many in Lexington, the choice is between leaving the community they love or facing unemployment, a stark reality created by a $426 million corporate loss.
 

KDM

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Cattle numbers to the lowest level in 70 years....... There's a significant little piece of information right there. Thanks for the article tikkalover.
 


Obi-Wan

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Just read that Tyson is closing some massive plants in Nebraska and Texas. Yikes!! I guess build back better will now be increase imports immediately. $10 a lb ground beer by spring? Lord in heaven I hope not, but I can sure see it being possible. Stay warm out there fellas.

Just read that Tyson is closing some massive plants in Nebraska and Texas. Yikes!! I guess build back better will now be increase imports immediately. $10 a lb ground beer by spring? Lord in heaven I hope not, but I can sure see it being possible. Stay warm out there fellas.

No trabajadors
 

KDM

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Did some fun math this morning. I looked at the number of hamburgers sold by mcdonalds every day in the us. Google told me there is a little over 5 million sold every day. So I'll go with 5 million as a beginning. 5 million burgers, assume 1/4 lb each comes to 1.25 million lbs of beef. Average carcass weight of slaughter cattle is about 1000 lbs with about half of that being meat. This results in 2500 slaughter cattle every day for just one fast food restaurant. Or an annual use of 912500 cattle every year. The total number of slaughter cattle in the US annually is 34 millionish. That's some interesting math given the number of fast food joints, other restaurants, grocery stores, and other consumers like us plain ole schmoes. The latest numbers I could find put the DoD in 2011 at 95 million pounds of beef consumed that year for the military members and families. Keep in mind my math skills are on par with Alaskan skills at coconut production. So please check my math. I'm not a chicken little kind of guy, but the writing on the wall is getting pretty damn big right now. We imported a record 4.6 billion lbs of beef in 2024. Imported beef had better be robust and stable is all I can say or look out.
 

Rowdie

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So it looks like we need more cattle producers. I would think that should be easy for this country, but what are some of the hurdles?
 

Rowdie

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It would be good if the cattle producers could form a coalition or something and purchase the plant in Nebraska. Eliminate the middleman and work together for fair prices in both ends.
 


Obi-Wan

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All of those here that have bought land for the purpose of hunting have played a part in increasing the average age of ranchers. High land prices keep many young farmer/ranchers from starting out
 

KDM

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So it looks like we need more cattle producers. I would think that should be easy for this country, but what are some of the hurdles?
Tough life calving in Feb-April in the northland. You are tied to the cows every day all day. No vacations, day trips only if you can find someone who knows your herd and can deal with them. HUGE startup costs that won't see a return for 18 months. Right now a bred heifer is around 3500 average. Govt. regulations on everything from vaccines, to shipping, to processing, to feedlot numbers, to inspections, to authorized medications, pesticide usages, manure management, ANYTHING USDA, smells, Outrageous land prices, etc. etc. etc. Not to mention that the 4 big meat processors (Tyson, Cargill, JBS, and National Beef) set the price you can get for your cattle and they decide if you can even get them to market. Tough sell to youngsters used to convenience, easy fixes, air conditioning, and all things urban. Just to name a few.
 

bucksnbears

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So it looks like we need more cattle producers. I would think that should be easy for this country, but what are some of the hurdles?
Some has to do with finding good quality pasture/ hay land.
Farmers usually pay more to rent land then cattle guys can afford.
 

1lessdog

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Most of the irrigated Alfalfa down by Masa and Phoenix area were owned by Saudi Arabia. They would ship the hay back to there home land for dairy and Stock Cow operations. Arizona stopped it as they were using to much water.
 


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