Soybean welfare plan

[Kasey]

I thought this topic was going to be about people on welfare, will be getting soybeans.

 

[westwolfone]

I think that's part of the plan. Buy commodities and distribute them through the food programs.

Government Tofu?

 

[PrairieGhost]

Government Tofu?

:bigpuke:

 

[Brian Renville]

I thought this topic was going to be about people on welfare, will be getting soybeans.

It should b. SNAP recipients should be snapping edamame instead of getting debit cards. #givefoodnotcash

 

[SDMF]

I figure after all the grunting, growling, and making faces between us and China are over, the Chinese will still need the Ag products we have to feed their people so this will balance out over time and all will be OK. These short term issues are small potatoes when stacked up against a fair trade balance going foreword into the future.

Soybeans, we're talking about soybeans, not potatoes of any size.

Now on a more serious note, there isn't 1 farmer who's lost even 1 penny on 2018 soybeans yet, nor will there be for a minimum of at least 2 months when harvest actually begins. After harvest actually begins, they 1st thing that will happen is farmers will deliver to fulfill their contracted beans. They're not going to lose a penny on contracted beans, the price was set, agreed to, and contracted last spring.

So, with the exception of someone still sitting on 2017 harvest in storage, there isn't anyone going to be losing any $$ and nor does the daily spot price mean jack-squat until Oct/Nov when the 2018 harvest starts to roll in.

The EU trade tensions ALMOST lasted 2 weeks. China's stock market is down ~40% and they don't come anywhere close to producing enough food for their people. If you think the '08 market correction was tough, imagine that kind of market dip coupled with not enough food to feed your population.

In contrast, DOW is 25,500, NASDAQ is knocking on the door of 8k and the S&P 500 hit an all time high this week. If China goes to Argentina and Brazil, we'll go ahead and sell to the folks Argentina and Brazil usually do, they don't have enough for China AND their old customers.

Good god, I'm not that smart and even I can see that there's time for China to "blink" before the 1st flex header gets attached in Oct.

 

[1804]

some of you guys don't get it farming is tough now, if you really know the cost of farming you would ask your self why would someone do such a thing, they keep going because they love it and its in most cases a family run operation, why not spend you time attacking some real losers not our American Farmers. is the boat ramp a welfare, golf courses welfare, library, roads, civic center, Don't join the left on this BS your wrong.

 

[PrairieGhost]

Those are all public places for everyone. I don't think you want 50 guys with jacked up trucks having a mud run on your south quarter. Public vs private = apples and oranges. That's just reality, but we don't want to submit to the enemy for any single group of Americans not just farmers.

 

[Kentucky Windage]

Soybeans, we're talking about soybeans, not potatoes of any size.

Now on a more serious note, there isn't 1 farmer who's lost even 1 penny on 2018 soybeans yet, nor will there be for a minimum of at least 2 months when harvest actually begins. After harvest actually begins, they 1st thing that will happen is farmers will deliver to fulfill their contracted beans. They're not going to lose a penny on contracted beans, the price was set, agreed to, and contracted last spring.

So, with the exception of someone still sitting on 2017 harvest in storage, there isn't anyone going to be losing any $$ and nor does the daily spot price mean jack-squat until Oct/Nov when the 2018 harvest starts to roll in.

The EU trade tensions ALMOST lasted 2 weeks. China's stock market is down ~40% and they don't come anywhere close to producing enough food for their people. If you think the '08 market correction was tough, imagine that kind of market dip coupled with not enough food to feed your population.

In contrast, DOW is 25,500, NASDAQ is knocking on the door of 8k and the S&P 500 hit an all time high this week. If China goes to Argentina and Brazil, we'll go ahead and sell to the folks Argentina and Brazil usually do, they don't have enough for China AND their old customers.

Good god, I'm not that smart and even I can see that there's time for China to "blink" before the 1st flex header gets attached in Oct.

Bad farmers don’t market, and there are more out there than you’d think. There are different strategies on how to market a crop, but selling it all or holding onto to all of are not good strategies. Usually sales are made throughout the year. You hope to average a good price in the end. Tough times weed out bad farmers. Knowing ones cost of production is extremely important. The only money not spent on the crop at this point is harvest and delivery costs. Farmers maybe haven’t lost a penny, but they haven’t made one yet either. What you are hearing is “if I sold my old crop or make a future sale on new crop at today’s market price based on my farm average production, I would make or lose X amount amount per acre.” The crop won’t be made till August. We will see what happens......

 

[SDMF]

Bad farmers don’t market, and there are more out there than you’d think. There are different strategies on how to market a crop, but selling it all or holding onto to all of are not good strategies. Usually sales are made throughout the year. You hope to average a good price in the end. Tough times weed out bad farmers. Knowing ones cost of production is extremely important. The only money not spent on the crop at this point is harvest and delivery costs. Farmers maybe haven’t lost a penny, but they haven’t made one yet either. What you are hearing is “if I sold my old crop or make a future sale on new crop at today’s market price based on my farm average production, I would make or lose X amount amount per acre.” The crop won’t be made till August. We will see what happens......

What I'm really saying is that the EU was able to "hold-out" on tariffs for ALMOST 2wks before they decided it was time to hatch a new plan.

30yrs ago, China could've told us to piss-off and let a bunch of people starve to death without much risk of a serious uprising from the populace. Now, that won't work. Too much of their population now knows what it's like to not have to worry about where their next meal is coming from. Those people are absolutely not going to be denied food. More US products into China at a lower price due to lower or repealed tariffs aren't gonna piss off the Chinese populace either.

While Aug will give a good indicator of what yield is going to provide, ND is 2mo away from attaching flex headers. 2mo is an awful long time to be hungry. China also knows that if they wait too long, the next purchase they make will be at an exponentially inflated rate. China could easily wait 1-wk too long to "blink" and end up paying $20+ for $8.50 beans.

 

[Kentucky Windage]

What I'm really saying is that the EU was able to "hold-out" on tariffs for ALMOST 2wks before they decided it was time to hatch a new plan.

30yrs ago, China could've told us to piss-off and let a bunch of people starve to death without much risk of a serious uprising from the populace. Now, that won't work. Too much of their population now knows what it's like to not have to worry about where their next meal is coming from. Those people are absolutely not going to be denied food. More US products into China at a lower price due to lower or repealed tariffs aren't gonna piss off the Chinese populace either.

While Aug will give a good indicator of what yield is going to provide, ND is 2mo away from attaching flex headers. 2mo is an awful long time to be hungry. China also knows that if they wait too long, the next purchase they make will be at an exponentially inflated rate. China could easily wait 1-wk too long to "blink" and end up paying $20+ for $8.50 beans.

Lets hope so. I’ll buy you a new pickup if beans hit $20!

 

[SDMF]

Lets hope so. I’ll buy you a new pickup if beans hit $20!

Wasn't there a really short period, like 7-10 days were wheat was over $20 10ish years ago? Seems like it was Dec, Jan, Feb, sometime in the winter.

 

[PrairieGhost]

I believe it was durum that hit $13 a few years ago, and the organic does hit $20.
A friend who is a crop adjuster just paid out $240k on hailed out buckwheat. I told him I was unfamiliar with buckwheat and asked how much it was worth. He said they make $800 an acre of buckwheat. I had no idea.

SDMF your going to have to wait in line for that pickup. I think Kentucky is going to buy me one if he gets to hunt six days this fall.::laughing::

 

[eyexer]

This government isn’t going to let farmers suffer for ten minutes. I kinda laughed when I used farmers and suffer in the same sentence lol

 

[PrairieGhost]

As I drove home from church soybean fields were about all there was. I couldn't help think about how many of our enemies that will feed. We sold wheat to Russia, we explored selling North Dakota ag products to Cuba, we now sell food to the Chinese. Is there something wrong with this picture? Did we send wheat to Hitler in 1939? I don't think so. Was that bushels of soybeans we dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki?

 

[You]

As I drove home from church soybean fields were about all there was. I couldn't help think about how many of our enemies that will feed. We sold wheat to Russia, we explored selling North Dakota ag products to Cuba, we now sell food to the Chinese. Is there something wrong with this picture? Did we send wheat to Hitler in 1939? I don't think so. Was that bushels of soybeans we dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki?

Russia, China, & Cuba are not enemies of mine old man.

Baby boomers on the other hand...

 

[db-2]

Give it time YOU. One day you will be along side of us on our thinking. Not that many years ago. db

 

[PrairieGhost]

Russia, China, & Cuba are not enemies of mine old man.

You may change your mind kid, once you have enough experience to know crap from apple butter.

Edit: These countries may be your friends, but they are enemies of the United States. Where does that leave you Benedict?

 

[Fritz the Cat]

The people of Russia are not our enemy, never were. Lenin's Red Terror was a totally unfortunate event for them. A working mans paradise my ass. International banksters funded Lenin.

“The goal of international communism is not to destroy Western international debt capitalism. The goal of international communism is to enslave mankind at the behest of Western international debt capitalism.” ​

Lenin's red army would have collapsed over and over without the help of guys like W. Averill Harriman. At Brown Brothers Harriman Bank, Averill had a right hand numbers man named George Herbert Walker who had another numbers underling named Prescott Bush. Walker's daughter married Prescott and they had a son...…….George Herbert Walker Bush.

 

[db-2]

In the 50-60 when I was a kid there was all this fake news.
Nikita Khrushchev stated he would bury us and when ask the time frame he said time is short.
And then they had us ducking under the desk when the bomb hit and all these fall out shelters that were built and all the silos built in our back yard to protect us from something, maybe outer space people, and there were no missiles from the Russians in Cuba either.

No it was all fake news at the time, there were no missiles in those there silos anyways and Russia was never our enemy.

Damn and as a kid I bought into this and was scare that I would not see the next day until I found out a girl was different than a boy and my thinking turn to other things more interesting. Walter Cronkite just did not tell the truth. db

 

[db-2]

Soybeans breaking farmers:

According to the 2017 annual report from ND Farm Management program.
136 farmers in the North Central part of the state had a average net worth of $1,499,983 after debts of $840,875. They also had $613,197 in grain, cash and prepaids that if sold would pay the bulk of the debt in full.

Soybeans had a return of $104 over direct cost which was second to wheat of $131.
Yield was 29.4 bushels per acre with a price of $8.91. Price today is $7.40/bushel.
29 bushel is ok but in this area and with some rain in August they do expect 40/acre.

Grew up on a farm, family farms and been associated with farmers all my adult life. All in life has its ups and downs including those on salary and those who owns a business in town. All life has its rich and those who are not rich with monies. Some appear rich while other finally show their rich when they die. Some take more risk than others. Some inherit and some make it on their own. For some it just works out while other struggle all their life financially.
In 77 when we did our first net worth statement our net worth consisted of the equity we had in a 77 cutlass which we still own today. Today that cutlass makes up about 1.5% of our net worth.
It is just some have learn to complain a lot over the years and others say nothing. db