Snowpocalypse

[Allen]

Might not be completely out but all the standing melt water disappeared the last 3 days. Good enough for me

Noon news a week ago said there was only about a 15" frost line to start with. Somebody yanking our chain.

Frost depth has a fair number of variables. How bare is the ground? Has it been tilled? How wet or dry is the soil compared to normal? Have you had deep snow cover, or has it been near nothing this winter? When your area gets to 20+ degrees, is it sunny or cloudy? Is the referenced site in any way, shape, or form different than your exact location?

There are more and more soil temperature profiles available every year. Back when I started to get interested in this topic there wasn't 1/20th what is currently available. Take a gander at NDAWN's Soil Temp data.

I always try to describe a given area's frost depth as a reasonable range.

 

[Davey Crockett]

Frost depth has a fair number of variables. How bare is the ground? Has it been tilled? How wet or dry is the soil compared to normal? Have you had deep snow cover, or has it been near nothing this winter? When your area gets to 20+ degrees, is it sunny or cloudy? Is the referenced site in any way, shape, or form different than your exact location?

There are more and more soil temperature profiles available every year. Back when I started to get interested in this topic there wasn't 1/20th what is currently available. Take a gander at NDAWN's Soil Temp data.

I always try to describe a given area's frost depth as a reasonable range.

Alan, do you know of any ice depth/thickness reports on a body of water ? I'm curious how close ice thickness vs frost depth would be throughout the season.

 

[Allen]

Alan, do you know of any ice depth/thickness reports on a body of water ? I'm curious how close ice thickness vs frost depth would be throughout the season.

I come to social media sites like NDA to get my estimates for ice thickness because there are no official estimates or measurements of ice thickness. There are similarities between the two, but also some notable differences. Snow is actually great insulation, so early heavy snows like the Veteran's Day blizzards from a couple years ago saw some areas with near zero frost depth in January and February, all because the ground was well insulated from the super cold air. Of course, we see the same on bodies of water. Heavy snow on top early on keeps the ice at a minimum.

Similarly, a nice white surface reflects solar radiation back into the air, but a dark surface does a really good job of absorbing warmth from the sun. You will often hear this referred to as albedo, but intuitively we all learn early in life to not put your hand on a black vehicle parked in direct sunlight during July.

 

[Allen]

Back to the snow topic for this week:

https://www.weather.gov/media/bis/DssPacket.pdf

 

[Rowdie]

Ice at Fort Yates yesterday

 

[NDSportsman]

Sounds like March is going out like a lion.........

 

[guywhofishes]

Sounds like March is going out like a lion.........

“We need the moisture.”

 

[luvcatchingbass]

“We need the moisture.”

I agree we need the moisture but dang it why can't it just be 2 days of slow rain and 45 degrees out. I guess I will finally be using the new to me snowblower I picked up for my JD 4020 in November, have been saying its some of the best money I have spent in without using it.

 

[Davey Crockett]

I agree we need the moisture but dang it why can't it just be 2 days of slow rain and 45 degrees out. I guess I will finally be using the new to me snowblower I picked up for my JD 4020 in November, have been saying its some of the best money I have spent in without using it.

Nice, Is that a front mount ?

 

[Paddledogger]

Ice at Fort Yates yesterday

That ice looks a bit too thin for me!

 

[Allen]

Not to be a Debbie Downer, but don't look at the backend of the models for next weekend. Too far out for much certainty, but thus far it looks like a "rinse and repeat" of this week.

 

[BDub]

In 2016 we were slamming the walleyes down at Hazelton.

 

[Bossman]

I've been following Dean Wysocki from WDAY the past few years. This guy is GOOD..Amazing how his long term predictions come to fruition..He predicted this storm back in at least November, to the day..

 

[Kurtr]

If i have to move 6 inches might as well move 18. From canada to Kansas is dry so bring it all on.

 

[Paddledogger]

I've been following Dean Wysocki from WDAY the past few years. This guy is GOOD..Amazing how his long term predictions come to fruition..He predicted this storm back in at least November, to the day..

Even out here in western ND, I listen to 1100 AM The Flag every morning. Dean is pretty good and pretty much follows the LRC (Lezak Recurring Cycle) forecast. They should have their live spring/summer forecast sometime soon. I'm old school...we had all that fog back around Christmas and into New Years.....and here we are 3 months later.

 

[Allen]

Even out here in western ND, I listen to 1100 AM The Flag every morning. Dean is pretty good and pretty much follows the LRC (Lezak Recurring Cycle) forecast. They should have their live spring/summer forecast sometime soon. I'm old school...we had all that fog back around Christmas and into New Years.....and here we are 3 months later.

It doesn't take a genius to expect a spring snow or rain event in late March or early April. After Jan and Feb, monthly precip totals do nothing but go up, so using anything 90 days out to say it was expected because of XXX is fairly ridiculous. It's kind of like saying "90 days after a spring snowstorm, we will have several days of 90-degree heat". That's right, you heard it here first...there will be several days of 90-degree heat around the end of June or early July, plus or minus 10 days...of course.

 

[BrokenBackJack]

Don't forget about the fog, last 7-10 days of December.

 

[Allen]

If i have to move 6 inches might as well move 18. From canada to Kansas is dry so bring it all on.

Here's a Percent of Normal Precipitation map for the Canada to Kansas part of the country. At this point, it hasn't been as dry as one might think. My pond in the backyard has filled and spilled already this year.

 

[Kurtr]

Here's a Percent of Normal Precipitation map for the Canada to Kansas part of the country. At this point, it hasn't been as dry as one might think. My pond in the backyard has filled and spilled already this year.

They are talking of making seasons shorter or lowering limits for ducks if canada does not get some moisture for this years breeding season. If the b pop does not get better i can see it coming. Mallards are down to 6.1 milion and they want a standing goal of 8 million. I hope Alberta and Saskatchewan get all kinds this spring.

 

[deleted member]

of the millions of ducks that breed and pass through here every year, how many are actually shot? absent very dire circumstances, i can't imagine hunting has much of an impact on population numbers these days. maybe i am wrong.