Weather Modification, yea or nay?

[Brian Renville]

http://www.inforum.com/opinion/colu...ther-modification-contributing-recent-drought

http://www.inforum.com/opinion/colu...ther-modification-contributing-recent-drought

Im not so sure about this. I know the drought has gotten everyone over here crabby but maybe we aren't the problem just yet. Anyway here is the actual numbers and trend since 1950. The program started in 1975.

 

[NDSportsman]

Clints got it wrong. The weather mods they do out west are to induce precip and lessen hail damage. They are most definitely not trying to reduce precipitation! That said I don't think the mods have much of an impact one way or the other.

 

[guywhofishes]

that's really strange - it appears totally random

:raisin:

 

[PrairieGhost]

Snake oil I think. Clouds keep splitting around Jamestown and no one is spreading silver iodide. I think we are so dry the clouds evaporate as they approach. Much like watching clouds descend a mountain and grow smaller and smaller. I have watched 100 % cloud cover descending a mountain and half way down it's gone. Temperature and air density change water carry capacity, but moist air meeting dry air dissipates cloud cover too. I don't think it's often cloudy at Death Valley.

 

[Vollmer]

This has become a hot topic with the farmers this year.

 

[SDMF]

Just my uneducated opinion, but, I'd think since 1950, Ft. Peck, Oahe, and Sak have played a role in precip as well. That's a lot of water sitting here year 'round that wasn't there prior.

There's lots of people looking at lots of stuff, but probably not enough people looking at the whole picture.

 

[3tt3v]

Just my uneducated opinion, but, I'd think since 1950, Ft. Peck, Oahe, and Sak have played a role in precip as well. That's a lot of water sitting here year 'round that wasn't there prior.

There's lots of people looking at lots of stuff, but probably not enough people looking at the whole picture.

And most of that water came from lots of snow melt not rain.

 

[eyexer]

I personally think it works. I live really close to the Montana border west of Williston. Whenever there is bad weather heading our way I see the plane up there seeding away. Then as that storm moves east it starts to shrink and dissipate. Happens time and time again.

 

[NodakBuckeye]

that's really strange - it appears totally random

:raisin:

Lots of horn tootin' on their webpage for their efforts. Seems rather interpretive than substance based.

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I personally think it works. I live really close to the Montana border west of Williston. Whenever there is bad weather heading our way I see the plane up there seeding away. Then as that storm moves east it starts to shrink and dissipate. Happens time and time again.

You can see it happen on radar... storms look great coming in and just fall apart coming into Nd, get to New Town and start to expand. Guessing it has a negative effect with limited moisture and forcing- too much of a good thing.

Peope from Idaho in Watford are going, mmmhmmm, told you so!

 

[BBQBluesMan]

Yo messin wit ma nature like that is whack, nom sayin?

 

[Migrator Man]

Big storms on Sunday night failed to move into Minot and instead stayed to the south. It was like they hit a wall when they reached Minot. I say there was a story from of news about cloud seeding causing it. I was really looking for a cool rain to cool the temps down but no luck!

 

[eyexer]

Lots of horn tootin' on their webpage for their efforts. Seems rather interpretive than substance based.

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You can see it happen on radar... storms look great coming in and just fall apart coming into Nd, get to New Town and start to expand. Guessing it has a negative effect with limited moisture and forcing- too much of a good thing.

Peope from Idaho in Watford are going, mmmhmmm, told you so!

you actually found someone from Idaho that was smart enough to say "told you so" lol

 

[SDMF]

And most of that water came from lots of snow melt not rain.

I know the water in the lake came from runoff. What I'm getting at is there's now all this water stored in the reservoirs potentially adding humidity and lowering the temp. Maybe there's no effect, just seems like a lot of potential water sitting there to disturb atmosphereics that used to not be there.

 

[guywhofishes]

Little Minneapolis catches another break.

 

[Rowdie]

That storm went over us (Ft Yates) this morning. It woke up my wife so she went in early. I just checked my rain gauge, and there was almost 4 INCHES! 3.75. Usually it blows and rumbles and spits very little.

 

[3Roosters]

Ask Al Gore. I am sure he knows.

 

[Brian Renville]

The tinfoil hat wearing crowd is going wild on the ol' facebook about the write up now. Screaming things like "UC Berkely says!" and "The EPA!!!" The data tells us that average is the real abnormal thing in the west and one way or the other most years give people something to lose their minds over.

 

[Allen]

Average is a horrible way to look at precip in ND. In reality, it is not a "normal" distribution, it is skewed. So in all cases, the "average", or better put, the statistical Mean is higher than the Median (where half the data points are above and half are below). In ND, the monthly Means tend to be around 0.2 - 0.3 inches higher than the Median. What this says is that more than half the time we are below average.

The math and logic behind why this is true is fairly straight forward. While you can never get below zero in precip received, there is no mathematical limit on the upper end. So the few years like 1993 where the Bismarck area received 13.75 inches of rain in July are really pulling the Mean up, while the few years we've gotten 0.1 inches, just can't pull the Mean down far enough when you are talking about a Mean of roughly 2.3 inches.

Thus, if you use the "average" as your measuring stick for defining drought, you will find that you are in a drought more often than not.

Like I've been known to say, it's tough to be sympathetic to anyone trying to dryland farm watermelons in ND when 25% of the time you should EXPECT less than 1.25 inches of moisture in July. This is a risk management decision.

Interesting trivia, but it takes about 3,000 gallons of water to raise a bushel of corn.

 

[espringers]

I thought cloud seeding was supposed to cause precipitation. No? I too wouldn't be surprised if science showed water begats water... or that huge lakes lead to more local precipitation.

 

[dblkluk]

Big storms on Sunday night failed to move into Minot and instead stayed to the south. It was like they hit a wall when they reached Minot. I say there was a story from of news about cloud seeding causing it. I was really looking for a cool rain to cool the temps down but no luck!

I for one was pretty damn happy it stayed south. We finally got some rain at my place.