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<blockquote data-quote="eyexer" data-source="post: 161572" data-attributes="member: 315"><p>Rig count will be around 50 by early summer.&nbsp; The guy in the article has some facts right but his reasons and overall thought/theory isn't quite the way it is.&nbsp; The IBOP varies greatly throughout the Bakken.&nbsp; The gas ration varies greatly throughout the Bakken.&nbsp; The Water varies greatly throughout the Bakken.&nbsp; There are currently about 1000 wells that have been drilled but not fraced.&nbsp; This is starting to take place and the volume will increase dramatically over the next few months.&nbsp; Just the nature of adding additional wells on existing pads and drilling more and more laterals between existing wells is going to produce less IBOP than the first wells did.&nbsp; That's just common sense.&nbsp; But the cost to drill/frac, etc has dropped at least 30% so it's still cost effective.&nbsp; We will be over a million barrels a day again by fall as long as the price stays at or near where it is right now.&nbsp; One of the things this guy doesn't realize or fails to understand is that when you go in and drill these new wells within a few hundred to a thousand feet from an existing well and frac it, the old wells running close buy actually get a free frac job to some extent.&nbsp; We're seeing this all the time now with these new wells.&nbsp; The adjacent wells have to be shut in while the frac goes on.&nbsp; so the production stops on them for 2-4 weeks pending on how many frac stages and wells close by that need to be fraced.&nbsp; But when you bring them old ones back on they produce 400-500% more than what they were producing for 4-6 months sometimes.&nbsp; so the actual production for the whole state could be fairly crazy up and down for quite awhile due to some of this type of things.</p></blockquote><p></p>

[QUOTE="eyexer, post: 161572, member: 315"] Rig count will be around 50 by early summer. The guy in the article has some facts right but his reasons and overall thought/theory isn't quite the way it is. The IBOP varies greatly throughout the Bakken. The gas ration varies greatly throughout the Bakken. The Water varies greatly throughout the Bakken. There are currently about 1000 wells that have been drilled but not fraced. This is starting to take place and the volume will increase dramatically over the next few months. Just the nature of adding additional wells on existing pads and drilling more and more laterals between existing wells is going to produce less IBOP than the first wells did. That's just common sense. But the cost to drill/frac, etc has dropped at least 30% so it's still cost effective. We will be over a million barrels a day again by fall as long as the price stays at or near where it is right now. One of the things this guy doesn't realize or fails to understand is that when you go in and drill these new wells within a few hundred to a thousand feet from an existing well and frac it, the old wells running close buy actually get a free frac job to some extent. We're seeing this all the time now with these new wells. The adjacent wells have to be shut in while the frac goes on. so the production stops on them for 2-4 weeks pending on how many frac stages and wells close by that need to be fraced. But when you bring them old ones back on they produce 400-500% more than what they were producing for 4-6 months sometimes. so the actual production for the whole state could be fairly crazy up and down for quite awhile due to some of this type of things. [/QUOTE]

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