Interesting read

[Zogman]

I like how this guy thinks!


Letter: Climate theory involves many assumptionsBy Robert J. Otto Today at 8:47 a.m.
To the editor, Grand Forks Herald


Recently, you ran a column by a professor saying we and our leaders should be more concerned about anthropological catastrophic global warming. I have no doubt that humans have affected the climate by their actions; however, I question the catastrophic part.




When I was at the university, my physical chemistry professor always emphasized when discussing any scientific law, theory or principle the importance of understanding the assumptions that went into developing the idea. If you don't understand the assumptions you can't understand when and to what extent the idea applies.


Now something as broad as global climate theory involves a lot of assumptions — and changing any one of them is apt to change the conclusions by wide margins — but we're never told what the modelers are assuming and why they selected the data points they're using.


Why? Could it be that they're selecting the assumptions that lead to the most dire results so they can scare more money out of Congress?


We're told we should just accept their results because they're experts. So what? I can remember when the Club of Rome said we were running out of everything and that there would be widespread starvation by 1996. Twenty years ago the experts were telling us that U.S. oil production had peaked and was in a long term rapid decline. We have experts running the federal reserve and a nickel ice cream cone now costs almost $2.


Experts don't have a good record.

 

[Allen]

This guy "learned" while he was in college.

Back in the 90s while I was at UND we would get the occasional "climate change" modeling expert. I was the jerk in the audience back then who would always ask how they handled the solar output. It never failed, they always would say that it was a "constant". Well, it's not. Never has been...and only will be a constant once the sun gets extinguished.

Of course, nowadays they actually use a variable in the models when it comes to the Solar Constant, but the author of this letter knows that you have to understand the inputs in order to get a grasp on how the model arrives at a value. All models are is a series of mathematical equations being solved by a computer. Rarely do they use equations that have math errors, the errors all come in the form of data and assumptions. Hence the term, GIGO (Garbage In, Garbage Out).

 

[Riggen&Jiggen]

Back in 1994 at NDSU I had a climatology class and the instructor was the states climatologist at the time (don't remember his name). Anyways he said that in no way could scientists develop a global warming theory that was accurate due to the effects of cloud cover. He said that there is to many changing variables to predict any long term climate changes that are directly effected by man. Also he talked how the earth's climate is like a pendulum. It may swing warm or cold but always comes back to the middle. I believe humans can effect the climate and should have some common sense pollution policies in place but leave out the sky is falling policies that are not needed.

 

[3Roosters]

Now..more than ever..think it is safe to say, that just because a college professor says something is true, doesn't necessarily mean it is so.

 

[gst]

This guy "learned" while he was in college.

Back in the 90s while I was at UND we would get the occasional "climate change" modeling expert. I was the jerk in the audience back then who would always ask how they handled the solar output. It never failed, they always would say that it was a "constant". Well, it's not. Never has been...and only will be a constant once the sun gets extinguished.

Of course, nowadays they actually use a variable in the models when it comes to the Solar Constant, but the author of this letter knows that you have to understand the inputs in order to get a grasp on how the model arrives at a value. All models are is a series of mathematical equations being solved by a computer. Rarely do they use equations that have math errors, the errors all come in the form of data and assumptions. Hence the term, GIGO (Garbage In, Garbage Out).

So then bit coin is based on global warming models? Sounds legit.

 

[fly2cast]

I also remember a lecture given by the most highly regarded geology professor at UND in the early 1990's regarding oil production. He had all kinds of data showing how by 2013 the worlds oil supply was going to dry up. He was totally serious.

One thing that I have learned about modeling complicated things is that it's very easy to get crap results that don't reflect the real world. Too many variables that we can't take into account.

If you are interested in the future of energy, watch this video about solar power. I had no idea that solar power technology has come this far in recent years. It's gonna mean the end of coal and natural gas in the very near future (even in North Dakota):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Ui-4MxgeW4