Missouri River rise

[Obi-Wan]

Saturday morning Apple creek WMA

 

[dean nelson]

Is guess that just like there are a lot of sudden COE experts and armchair hydrologists, it’s easy to sit and complain about the brainless boat ramp managers, and how stupid people are who don’t put up barricades where you think they ought to be.

They block off Fox Island because they don’t want people down there. I’m sure the city or COE is terribly sorry that you can’t drive down there to rubberneck.

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They block off the entire area because not everybody is smart enough to stay out. Some kid drives down there at night, the water continues to rise, he doesn’t see it and drives in to it. Now somebody has to go rescue him.

Same thing with some guys fishing, etc.

i guess they should consult NDA posters before they do what they do.

Did you seriously just quote yourself in the same post you just quoted? Seriously that's like olympic-level what the hell! So what's the logic of keeping the one boat ramp that does have water up on the parking lot in large amounts half open while the one that has no water on it is completely closed off. Like I said move the barricades in to where the waters actually at that way people can't drive into it. The water only covers a very small area right at the top of the ramp the rest of the parking lot is high and dry and will remain so unless the corps ups the releases again. By your logic they should also shut down Misty at the entrance even though there's only a little water on some grassy areas on the side of it of the ramp a tiny bit of parking lot because that legitimately could be at Target for playing with by kids in a car.

 

[dust in the wind]

No reason they couldn't have just barricaded off the ramp itself and left the vast majority the parking lot open up until the Corps of Engineers lets more water out and actually floods it.

Maybe they know more than they are letting on and plan on upping the output creating another flood situation.....

:;:stirthepot

 

[huffranger]

Saturday morning Apple creek WMA

Probably not a single carp to shoot in there........

 

[JayKay]

Did you seriously just quote yourself in the same post you just quoted? Seriously that's like olympic-level what the hell! So what's the logic of keeping the one boat ramp that does have water up on the parking lot in large amounts half open while the one that has no water on it is completely closed off. Like I said move the barricades in to where the waters actually at that way people can't drive into it. The water only covers a very small area right at the top of the ramp the rest of the parking lot is high and dry and will remain so unless the corps ups the releases again. By your logic they should also shut down Misty at the entrance even though there's only a little water on some grassy areas on the side of it of the ramp a tiny bit of parking lot because that legitimately could be at Target for playing with by kids in a car.

Sorry for my double-post. I'm not accustomed to accessing NDA through a mobile device. Besides, I was busy doing other things, and not checking my email for your thoughts.

My point stands though. You are quick to call the authorities clueless, stupid, and many other names, just because they don't do what they do to your liking.

Maybe a special "Dean Nelson Access Only" lane could be devised. I'd better get on the horn with the officials.

More to the point, you kinda answered your own question. They close an entire area, rather than place the barricades right at the waters edge, because the water's edge is moving. I'd guess that they have other matters to attend to, rather than post personnel at the ramp to move the barricades every time the water level changes.

Anyhow, have a good day.

 

[tikkalover]

Ha ha, Dean you are so full of knowledge about everything, I bet when you go to a party, after the first half hour you are sitting\standing talking to yourself. :;:duel :;:stirthepot. After reading this talk forum I have figured out some things. Some on here think they can manage the system better than the ones that already do, if these people were put in charge of the lake, by the time the snow started to melt the lake would be so empty all you would have left for water is the river channel. There is only one thing that is a for sure thing in figuring out this system and that is the amount of snow pack in the drainage areas that run into the lake. NO ONE can guess how much rain we will get when the snow is melting or when and how fast the snow itself will melt. Its been said before and I will say it again, if you live by water, be it a lake, river or even a slough eventually you WILL get wet. There are only 2 beings that know what will happen and when it will happen with this river system. One is the good LORD and one is MOTHER NATURE, and keep in mind she is a woman and we all know how they can be (sorry ladies).

 

[lindy1420]

Correct me if I'm wrong , but wasn't the dam built for flood protection and not for recreation?

 

[Kurtr]

Good thing it's not flooding

 

[Chefwayne33]

Last I saw was discharge would peak at 61000/cfs and the stage height 12.5 ft

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And it’s definitely above both those marks at this point, 13.1 feet on the gage and 61800/cfs

 

[dean nelson]

Last I saw it was 60,000 and 13. Remember there are other rivers that dump in above Bismarck so that has to be added in.

 

[eyexer]

With all this rain out west here I think there is no doubt it's going over the spillway this year.

 

[Wild and Free]

Correct me if I'm wrong , but wasn't the dam built for flood protection and not for recreation?

Originally, was about ten years ago IIRC that the corp from heavy political and industry influence changed their management of the Missouri / Mississippi River system for one primary purpose only now and that is to keep enough water back in the upper river system to keep barge traffic running when needed period. Flood control took a waaaayyy back seat to that purpose now. Second to barge traffic is dam and levee integrity and if you watch any meeting the corp does that is all they talk about, they could care one piss ant less about what and who floods along the system anymore....................flood control is out the window for any sort of basic management of the upper missouri river system and has been since the pressure from the barge shipping industry down south after 3 decades of on and off drought years and having barges high and dry in the lower mississippi river basin a few times since the late 80's.

 

[Colt45]

Originally, was about ten years ago IIRC that the corp from heavy political and industry influence changed their management of the Missouri / Mississippi River system for one primary purpose only now and that is to keep enough water back in the upper river system to keep barge traffic running when needed period. Flood control took a waaaayyy back seat to that purpose now. Second to barge traffic is dam and levee integrity and if you watch any meeting the corp does that is all they talk about, they could care one piss ant less about what and who floods along the system anymore....................flood control is out the window for any sort of basic management of the upper missouri river system and has been since the pressure from the barge shipping industry down south after 3 decades of on and off drought years and having barges high and dry in the lower mississippi river basin a few times since the late 80's.

I believe this to be true, and our spineless congressional delegations, past and present, didn't and haven't done anything about it. The state of Missouri controls the upper Missouri river damn system now, to save and protect their precious barge industry, and we are at their mercy. I think you can count on a ND Missouri river flood every 3-5 years from here on out.
The ground water is way up in Williston, lots of folks getting ground water in their homes again........ so there is a flood happening, at least for some people

 

[dean nelson]

Our spineless Congressional Delegation are the ones that fought to hold the water back, how short are your guys's memories? Hell before 2011 I can't count all the times everybody on fishing buddy and nodak b**** Non-Stop about the corp letting all the water out! The barge traffic fought to have more water move we fought to hold more water back that's just a fact of how it went. you can reverse it if you want in your memory but it doesn't change the fact that that's not how it went in real life.

Hell here's a snippet from just one of many articles that are still out there and I'll link to below it.

Upstream states, mainly Montana and the Dakotas, want to keep more water in their reservoirs for recreation and as a hedge against drought. Down-stream states, mainly Missouri, demand that the reservoirs release water to float commercial barges that carry gravel and fertilizer and to maintain municipal water supplies.

http://fwp.mt.gov/mtoutdoors/HTML/articles/2005/missouriwaters.htm

 

[Chefwayne33]

 

[Bauer]

;:;popcorn Round and round the merry go round goes. Wonder how many of the posts on here are just to fuel the fire ;:;rofl

 

[Allen]

Just wondering is all..... and also, besides Coe how come nobody is putting blame on the national weather service for these decisions and predictions? All I hear is COE... COE over and over.... doesn't the NWS have anything to do with anything?

That is a legit question. The thing you have to understand with that question though is how much evidence do you need before you start calling for 300, 400, 600 percent of normal over a given time period? It takes quite the set of cajones to walk out on that branch. The bottom line is that while the weather forecasting has indeed gotten a hell of a lot better over the past 20 years, the reality is anything out more than a few days is still subject to a heck of a lot of uncertainty. Yep, even when the meteorologists are talking about some significant storm 5-7 days out, the reality is their models are probably plus/minus 300 miles on placement, 24-36 hours on timing, and 50-150 percent on intensity. When you use that kind of uncertainty on volume of water to be placed on the planet's surface, you get some really wonky results. Which makes the hydro people at the mercy of NWS weather forecasts. Even on the Yellowstone/Missouri watersheds, you miss the centroid of the storm by 75 miles and you put the majority of the water in the wrong watershed, its even more problematic here in ND where 15 miles puts 90% of the water in the Heart River vs the Knife River watershed.

The bottom line here is that the Corps can only account for the water in the system, and not that speculated on by doomsayers like Obi Wan. To live on either extreme of the spectrum in forecasts is a recipe for disaster.

Funny thing is, I am betting on the Yellowstone to be on the bottom end of its normal by the end of summer. Losing its snowpack as early as it has makes it really susceptible to a 1-2 week cool and dry period.

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Correct me if I'm wrong , but wasn't the dam built for flood protection and not for recreation?

Water supply and about 5 other purposes. If it was built solely for flood protection, it would be a dry dam.

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Good thing it's not flooding

Right!

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I could be wrong but the last time I checked the Missouri River flows into Williston & Sakakawea with a short stop at Fort Peck, which is full so unless they moved the river it is part of Williston & Sakakawea problem.

Well, at least you're not wrong on the geography quiz.

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With all this rain out west here I think there is no doubt it's going over the spillway this year.

Stick to Optimax.

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Last I saw was discharge would peak at 61000/cfs and the stage height 12.5 ft

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And it’s definitely above both those marks at this point, 13.1 feet on the gage and 61800/cfs

Discharge of 60,000 at Garrison, add in Knife, Painted Woods, Hay Creek, and Square Butte to get to the actual flow in Bismarck/Mandan. 13.1 is a better estimate of stage in Bismarck.

Note, that is still 1.4 ft below flood stage.

 

[Obi-Wan]

That is a legit question. The thing you have to understand with that question though is how much evidence do you need before you start calling for 300, 400, 600 percent of normal over a given time period? It takes quite the set of cajones to walk out on that branch. The bottom line is that while the weather forecasting has indeed gotten a hell of a lot better over the past 20 years, the reality is anything out more than a few days is still subject to a heck of a lot of uncertainty. Yep, even when the meteorologists are talking about some significant storm 5-7 days out, the reality is their models are probably plus/minus 300 miles on placement, 24-36 hours on timing, and 50-150 percent on intensity. When you use that kind of uncertainty on volume of water to be placed on the planet's surface, you get some really wonky results. Which makes the hydro people at the mercy of NWS weather forecasts. Even on the Yellowstone/Missouri watersheds, you miss the centroid of the storm by 75 miles and you put the majority of the water in the wrong watershed, its even more problematic here in ND where 15 miles puts 90% of the water in the Heart River vs the Knife River watershed.

The bottom line here is that the Corps can only account for the water in the system, and not that speculated on by doomsayers like Obi Wan. To live on either extreme of the spectrum in forecasts is a recipe for disaster.

Funny thing is, I am betting on the Yellowstone to be on the bottom end of its normal by the end of summer. Losing its snowpack as early as it has makes it really susceptible to a 1-2 week cool and dry period.

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Water supply and about 5 other purposes. If it was built solely for flood protection, it would be a dry dam.

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Right!

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Well, at least you're not wrong on the geography quiz.

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Stick to Optimax.

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Discharge of 60,000 at Garrison, add in Knife, Painted Woods, Hay Creek, and Square Butte to get to the actual flow in Bismarck/Mandan. 13.1 is a better estimate of stage in Bismarck.


Note, that is still 1.4 ft below flood stage.

not finding your 300, 400, 600 percent of normal that you speak of

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/tfx/dx.php?wfo=tfx&type=&loc=products&fx=PCPNTOTALS

While there are areas well above normal it appears to be in localized areas

 

[dean nelson]

That is a legit question. The thing you have to understand with that question though is how much evidence do you need before you start calling for 300, 400, 600 percent of normal over a given time period? It takes quite the set of cajones to walk out on that branch. The bottom line is that while the weather forecasting has indeed gotten a hell of a lot better over the past 20 years, the reality is anything out more than a few days is still subject to a heck of a lot of uncertainty. Yep, even when the meteorologists are talking about some significant storm 5-7 days out, the reality is their models are probably plus/minus 300 miles on placement, 24-36 hours on timing, and 50-150 percent on intensity. When you use that kind of uncertainty on volume of water to be placed on the planet's surface, you get some really wonky results. Which makes the hydro people at the mercy of NWS weather forecasts. Even on the Yellowstone/Missouri watersheds, you miss the centroid of the storm by 75 miles and you put the majority of the water in the wrong watershed, its even more problematic here in ND where 15 miles puts 90% of the water in the Heart River vs the Knife River watershed.

The bottom line here is that the Corps can only account for the water in the system, and not that speculated on by doomsayers like Obi Wan. To live on either extreme of the spectrum in forecasts is a recipe for disaster.

Funny thing is, I am betting on the Yellowstone to be on the bottom end of its normal by the end of summer. Losing its snowpack as early as it has makes it really susceptible to a 1-2 week cool and dry period.

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Water supply and about 5 other purposes. If it was built solely for flood protection, it would be a dry dam.

- - - Updated - - -




Right!

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Well, at least you're not wrong on the geography quiz.

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Stick to Optimax.

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Discharge of 60,000 at Garrison, add in Knife, Painted Woods, Hay Creek, and Square Butte to get to the actual flow in Bismarck/Mandan. 13.1 is a better estimate of stage in Bismarck.

Note, that is still 1.4 ft below flood stage.

Question for you. Flipping through the flow rates through Bismarck the last week and a half or so and see a general 2500 to 2800 cfs number larger the the actual release amount. Now obviously anytime they're uping the release it is going to cause a few days time where it's almost impossible to correlate one with the other with any real accuracy. but I was just curious if that number is accurate for the amount of water entering the system between here in the dam or if it's just a quark on our gauge overestimating flows through town?

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not finding your 300, 400, 600 percent of normal that you speak of

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/tfx/dx.php?wfo=tfx&type=&loc=products&fx=PCPNTOTALS

While there are areas well above normal it appears to be in localized areas

I might be wrong here but I'm pretty sure he was just using that as an example not as some sort of a statistically ongoing fact.

 

[Allen]

not finding your 300, 400, 600 percent of normal that you speak of

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/tfx/dx.php?wfo=tfx&type=&loc=products&fx=PCPNTOTALS

While there are areas well above normal it appears to be in localized areas