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[dean nelson]

me too! my back yard looks like a nice snow covered white ground....upon further examination it is at least 5 ft across from the start of one tree row to the start of the other tree row.......

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they have been accurate the last few, they missed the "first one" which was suppose to hit ND and ended up missing us completely and struck MN this was early/mid nov. but either way putting all your weather info into one channel, network, etc will end up missing it eventually they all do. I cover as many sources as I can and see what multiple sites say.

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i would ask dean nelson his thoughts on this one, he was very adamant this last one was not gonna hit us and even posted the 5-7 day outlook on precip amounts to prove his point.....swing and a miss.....

Oh you mean the storm that up until late two days before all forecasters had it missing us by 300 miles. You mean the storm that was so erratic that the Weather Service actually talked about it in their forecast discussions on how far it's shifting with no warning. You mean the storm that pivitol the same group the Dakota storm chasers use had us getting nothing out of. You mean the storm that Allen who works for the weather service joked about people spreading storm talk that was a week old on Facebook till the storm flipped the script and came right at us. Is that the storm you talk about?

The fact is it don't make the forecast I just keep close tabs on it and people were talking about a storm that none of the people who get paid to make the forecast no longer had in the cards.





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As for the next storm pivitol has no grip on it. One run puts it in South Dakota the next one up in canada. The pic below is the latest run and most of the snow between Bismarck and fargo comes in the last few hours of the run putting it ten days out so obviously zero reliability other then the fact that it show a storm is coming and a very rough idea on its possible strength. There is a storm ahead of this one that produced much of the snow in northern nd that is getting less erratic but is still impossible to pin down but may possibly swipe some part of the state about 7 days from now.

 

[Trip McNeely]

hahaha dean was wrong..... :;:cheers

 

[dean nelson]

On weather one must try to be as much like the professionals as possible! :;:cheers

 

[Brian Renville]

 

[Allen]

I think when I took my current position, a seasoned veteran commented that the Earth would be uninhabitable if we lived in days 8-10 of the models. That being, they have a tendency to be more radical this far out than reality more often than not.

Then again, a good friend also once told me that "even a blind pig finds an acorn once in a while".

I say, live like it ain't gonna happen, but be prepared for it just in case it's your turn.

 

[dean nelson]

So as a hydrologist what are your thoughts on this 10-day snow forecast for the Sierra Nevadas? Not going to tell pivitol how to run their models but I'm going to go out on a limb here and say if I was a betting man I would put every cent I have on the under on this one. :;:stirthepot

 

[Kurtr]

It will blizzard 12-13-14 as that is the Mobridge ice tournament so it only makes sense. Usally I mark that weekend down for bad weather it has been nice twice in the 13 years I have fished it so get your snow blowers ready haha

 

[shorthairsrus]

No drought talk here I was surprised when it took all summer for dl to raise a little. Imo this could be 97 all over again. TG traverse and big stone don't have the snow pack they do in bismarck

 

[LBrandt]

Kind of nice living in the Banana belt for a change. not that much snow but if I put on the old hockey skates I could get to town faster than taking my truck on our township roads. Any road with a shelter belt on south side is a long skating rink until the next good thaw. Township cannot afford salt or sanding and have only seen the grader once so far this winter.

 

[Duckslayer100]

I'm supposed to be on Red Lake in a sleeper house Jan. 13-15, so I fully expect subzero temperatures, howling wind and feet of snow. It's only fitting.

 

[Allen]

So as a hydrologist what are your thoughts on this 10-day snow forecast for the Sierra Nevadas? Not going to tell pivitol how to run their models but I'm going to go out on a limb here and say if I was a betting man I would put every cent I have on the under on this one. :;:stirthepot

While taking the "under" would indeed seem like a good bet, this is called the "pineapple express" by some. Lots of warm and moist air streaming into that area over the coming days. As it lifts over the mountain range it's obviously going to dump a metric crap ton of snow. The preferred blend of models suggests 40-50 inches of snow as more reasonable than what's shown in this image though. I guess it's possible some valley or backside of a peak will get drifting, but that's not modeled amounts.

Then again, you already know this.

As a hydrologist, I say good for them. This is one of the areas that has been under the most extreme of droughts the past few years. They've even gone so far as to dump millions of plastic balls into their drinking water reservoirs to help slow evaporation. Which is a pretty novel idea that they will regret when they need to pick all of them up.

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No drought talk here I was surprised when it took all summer for dl to raise a little. Imo this could be 97 all over again. TG traverse and big stone don't have the snow pack they do in bismarck

Not a lot of snow over there so far, but didn't that area get a lot of rain in Nov and Dec? I'd be awfully concerned about frozen mud come March and April. A couple inches of rain on that with even a modest snowpack would be a bad deal.

 

[dean nelson]

Yeah the first thing I did after seeing that.....well other then laugh was to pull up the local NWS office and see what they had to say and saw the 50 inch forecast on their page. Living on the west side of the Continental Divide we didn't get very much orographic lifting at our house in winter but it was pretty cool watching the guys on the front range get hammered. The worst of the storm was oftentimes only 7 miles away yet we would be bright and sunny. But if you looked up at the divide clouds would be hanging in the gaps between the peaks onto our side like fingers of a hand. Now in summer the lifting was extremely obvious and would form thunder storms almost every day at the same time in the same spots like we were in Florida.

Tell you one thing if they got 300 inches if someone got stuck out in that we would probably be looking at Donner party take two.

 

[jdinny]

dean, you pretty much harassed a guy on FBO, egging him on to "prove to you" where this "precip" was coming from. you kept posting various pictures and data proving this guy wrong and alas 10"+ of snow fell.

just admit you were wrong one time please!!!!

I understand stuff gets mis taken over the world wide web but like I said "swing and a miss" for deano on that last one

p.s. dean I'm giving you a hard time. I watched 5 channels and got 5 different tracks , forecasts on that storm, I really just want you to say " guys I missed that one":;:cheers

 

[dean nelson]

Oh the info I had was definitely wrong but that's the thing with weather threads unless your making your own forecast none of this info is ours we are just relaying the info from various sources. As for on fishing buddy I was literally asking where he saw this because I kept seeing people talking about this big storm and nowhere I looked had it forecast anymore. I had seen it pop up on the pivitol map just after the Christmas storm but it suddenly disappeared off the map and all other sources and I was trying to find out who it was predicting it so I could check it out. As it turns out it was people still talking about a three day old model run....that last storm was like a magic trick the way it disappeared and then a few days later just as quickly reappeared. But yes I was wrong the storm did exist and did hit us. Now the question is will the next one hit us. Been allot of years since we got ten inches of snow and it only ranked 3rd out of four storms to hit in a little over a month. But hay only 48 inches to go to get the record!:;:cheers

 

[Twitch]

Oh the info I had was definitely wrong but that's the thing with weather threads unless your making your own forecast none of this info is ours we are just relaying the info from various sources. As for on fishing buddy I was literally asking where he saw this because I kept seeing people talking about this big storm and nowhere I looked had it forecast anymore. I had seen it pop up on the pivitol map just after the Christmas storm but it suddenly disappeared off the map and all other sources and I was trying to find out who it was predicting it so I could check it out. As it turns out it was people still talking about a three day old model run....that last storm was like a magic trick the way it disappeared and then a few days later just as quickly reappeared. But yes I was wrong the storm did exist and did hit us. Now the question is will the next one hit us. Been allot of years since we got ten inches of snow and it only ranked 3rd out of four storms to hit in a little over a month. But hay only 48 inches to go to get the record!:;:cheers

So you were wrong but someone else was wrong first so it wasn't your fault:;:stirthepot:;: haha

 

[jdinny]

So you were wrong but someone else was wrong first so it wasn't your fault:;:stirthepot:;: haha

hey dean said he was wrong somewhere in that paragraph so I'm happy! hahaha he contributes a lot of good info amongst various threads I really just wanted to see him admit he was kinda sorta mis informed or "wrong" as I call it haha

but yeah this next one appears to be drawing that gulf air again so the snow "if" we get it would likely be that shitty to shovel/blow BS. this last storm was light and fluffy and easy

 

[Twitch]

hey dean said he was wrong somewhere in that paragraph so I'm happy! hahaha he contributes a lot of good info amongst various threads I really just wanted to see him admit he was kinda sorta mis informed or "wrong" as I call it haha

but yeah this next one appears to be drawing that gulf air again so the snow "if" we get it would likely be that shitty to shovel/blow BS. this last storm was light and fluffy and easy

Oh I totally agree...I just couldn't resist, being an ass, and all