OPEC wins

[Kurtr]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/opec-us-shale-boom-over-124228588.html

So opec is claiming victory that we are going to stop pumping oil. Just wondering what it is like up there from the people that are actually there. Is it going to come to a grinding hault or what? the way i see it in my simple mind is if prices go up again they start pumping like a mother again up there is that how it will work or am i out to lunch on that?

 

[huntorride365]

Things have definitely slowed down. A lot businesses have cut more than 50% of there staff. Many will tell you at the present, things are pretty good and back under control.

 

[Lycanthrope]

Hopefully now all these out of staters will go home and crime rates will fall back to pre-oil days.... Lets keep US oil where it belongs, IN THE GROUND!!!

 

[lunkerslayer]

Liquid natural gas plant development

 

[eyexer]

things have slowed down but we have reached the bottom I guess. soon as oil prices go back up it'll be balls to the walls again. the slow down has forced companies to become even more efficient. 9 million dollar wells are now 6-6.5 million dollars in cost. fracing costs have plummeted. due to fracing costs dropping some companies are spending the same to have wells fraced but they get 30-50% more propant for that price. Which has led to 50%+ more IBOP. So we won't see the drop off in production that we anticipated. OPEC is blowing smoke trying to hold OPEC together. It's on the edge of collapse.

 

[Davy Crockett]

the way i see it in my simple mind is if prices go up again they start pumping like a mother again up there is that how it will work or am i out to lunch on that?[/QUOTE]


That's exactly how it works and the next boom will be the same as the last one and the one before that. The price goes up and it's all speed and no control, then a big crash at the end.

 

[johnr]

Seems the low oil price should drop the price at the pump more than it has.

I like cheap gas, and if my oil buddies aren't out their making the big bucks, why am I still paying high at the pump.

The $1.80 mark would be sweet. I remember Q98.7 in Fargo back in my high school days getting stop n go to run $0.98 per gallon gas all the time, and it was not much below the actual regular price, I think the barrel of oil right now is worth the same on the market as it was then?

 

[Davy Crockett]

things have slowed down but we have reached the bottom I guess. soon as oil prices go back up it'll be balls to the walls again. the slow down has forced companies to become even more efficient. 9 million dollar wells are now 6-6.5 million dollars in cost. fracing costs have plummeted. due to fracing costs dropping some companies are spending the same to have wells fraced but they get 30-50% more propant for that price. Which has led to 50%+ more IBOP. So we won't see the drop off in production that we anticipated. OPEC is blowing smoke trying to hold OPEC together. It's on the edge of collapse.

IMHO That will take a long time or a war, Whichever comes first.

 

[Fisherman25]

A lot of the smaller companies are in bad shape. If the prices stay down for another year, some will fold. It's not pretty.

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Seems the low oil price should drop the price at the pump more than it has.

I like cheap gas, and if my oil buddies aren't out their making the big bucks, why am I still paying high at the pump.

The $1.80 mark would be sweet. I remember Q98.7 in Fargo back in my high school days getting stop n go to run $0.98 per gallon gas all the time, and it was not much below the actual regular price, I think the barrel of oil right now is worth the same on the market as it was then?

The global economy won't be able to handle a long time period of this. So we both know what that means.

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Liquid natural gas plant development

Not enough return to drill for that alone. Yes it's cost effective for fuel right now, but the value is too low to expand supply for that alone. Thus, it's soon to be a declining supply.

 

[PrairieGhost]

Seems the low oil price should drop the price at the pump more than it has.

I like cheap gas, and if my oil buddies aren't out their making the big bucks, why am I still paying high at the pump.

The $1.80 mark would be sweet. I remember Q98.7 in Fargo back in my high school days getting stop n go to run $0.98 per gallon gas all the time, and it was not much below the actual regular price, I think the barrel of oil right now is worth the same on the market as it was then?

John I am afraid I'm going to give myself away as a really old guy. When I was at NDSU the expensive station on the south side of campus (not there now) had gas at 24 pennies a gallon.

 

[johnr]

John I am afraid I'm going to give myself away as a really old guy. When I was at NDSU the expensive station on the south side of campus (not there now) had gas at 24 pennies a gallon.

A draw beer at the turf was $.050 regular days, and 3 for a Buck specials, aahh the good old days. Cheap gas, and beer.

 

[lunkerslayer]

A draw beer at the turf was $.050 regular days, and 3 for a Buck specials, aahh the good old days. Cheap gas, and beer.

Johnr for president in 2016, bring back cheap beer and gas!!!!!

 

[Davy Crockett]

Eye, I'm not trying to be a Debbie Downer but even if North Dakota operators could somehow cut drilling and fracing costs in half of what they are now we would still be behind the 8 ball. The information below doesn't mention that Saudi has had infrastructure in place for years and we sit in the geological center of North America with little infrastructure in place.



most of the Saudi’s reserves are in large conventional formations. For example, the Ghawar super-giant field is known for abundant heavy crude (32-34) API trapped in relatively porous rock at a reasonable depth of ~6500 ft. So generally the oil is easy to extract
Saudi Arabia is a kingdom, and their national oil company, Saudi Aramco, has no royalties to pay out, low exploration costs, and access to a wide variety of crudes, from light sweet to heavy sour. They handle their own transportation, processing and refining which means profits are assessed over the whole enterprise, not each point in the chain. Labor costs and transportation costs within the Kingdom are inexpensive, and the land under which the oil fields sit is not really in competition for other resources.

These are conventional vertical wells that don't need to be fraced They drill, run casing , swab out the drilling mud and put the well on production.

 

[lunkerslayer]

That's why we need to develop liquid natural gas, use to heat up desalination plants in California, win win

 

[eyexer]

Eye, I'm not trying to be a Debbie Downer but even if North Dakota operators could somehow cut drilling and fracing costs in half of what they are now we would still be behind the 8 ball. The information below doesn't mention that Saudi has had infrastructure in place for years and we sit in the geological center of North America with little infrastructure in place.



most of the Saudi’s reserves are in large conventional formations. For example, the Ghawar super-giant field is known for abundant heavy crude (32-34) API trapped in relatively porous rock at a reasonable depth of ~6500 ft. So generally the oil is easy to extract
Saudi Arabia is a kingdom, and their national oil company, Saudi Aramco, has no royalties to pay out, low exploration costs, and access to a wide variety of crudes, from light sweet to heavy sour. They handle their own transportation, processing and refining which means profits are assessed over the whole enterprise, not each point in the chain. Labor costs and transportation costs within the Kingdom are inexpensive, and the land under which the oil fields sit is not really in competition for other resources.

These are conventional vertical wells that don't need to be fraced They drill, run casing , swab out the drilling mud and put the well on production.

they've been cut 33% already. they're not going to drill any more than they have to with these oil prices. they'll come back, they always do. just a question of when. With Russia amassing troops right now and the instability with Iran, etc. , I think by next year prices will skyrocket.

 

[NodakBuckeye]

True, Davey they can pull it up easier and do not pay royalties, etc... However, they pay a huge amount in subsidies for fuel costs, electrcity generation and lower prices are starting to take their toll on them too. They are looking at a budget deficeit of over 20% of their GDP this year, and while they have huge amounts of foreign assests, they lost over 60 billion dollars in value from January to June. They can limp along at 45 bucks a barrel for a little while, if it drops below 40 then they too are screwed. You can't just ramp up production when prices keep falling in hopes of replacing revenue since all you will do is drive down price further. At their current rate of oil consumption and known reserves there, Saudi Aramaco say they will be a net oil importer by 2030. Paybacks can be a real bitch.

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I would also agree that the increase of Russian troops in Syria, Iran getting what it wants (as in the bomb), ISIS, etc.. is just going to fuel the flames of unrest in that region and beyond. Depending on your beliefs this is either just another bump in the road or the begining of the end.

 

[NDwalleyes]

We are only 1 terrorist attack away from $100 oil.

 

[Davy Crockett]

True, Davey they can pull it up easier and do not pay royalties, etc... However, they pay a huge amount in subsidies for fuel costs, electrcity generation and lower prices are starting to take their toll on them too. They are looking at a budget deficeit of over 20% of their GDP this year, and while they have huge amounts of foreign assests, they lost over 60 billion dollars in value from January to June. They can limp along at 45 bucks a barrel for a little while, if it drops below 40 then they too are screwed. You can't just ramp up production when prices keep falling in hopes of replacing revenue since all you will do is drive down price further. At their current rate of oil consumption and known reserves there, Saudi Aramaco say they will be a net oil importer by 2030. Paybacks can be a real bitch.

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I would also agree that the increase of Russian troops in Syria, Iran getting what it wants (as in the bomb), ISIS, etc.. is just going to fuel the flames of unrest in that region and beyond. Depending on your beliefs this is either just another bump in the road or the begining of the end.

I agree with what you say but throw Their beliefs into the mix of things and it starts getting spooky. We have been in a cold war over oil every since I can remember .

ND walleyes nailed it. "We are only 1 terrorist attack away from $100 oil." The next one could be with Nukes.

 

[NodakBuckeye]

Yep, I agree. John Kerry is our own Neville Chamberlain. These events have been foretold, sad to see our leaders have become enablers.

 

[svnmag]

OPEC beat me this morning. I will continue to endeavor to persevere.