Another winter storm

[BDub]

The GFS model seems to be exaggerated most of the time. When GFS and the Euro models agree look out. Good or bad. I just wait until the local weather gurus call it.

 

[Allen]

The GFS model seems to be exaggerated most of the time. When GFS and the Euro models agree look out. Good or bad. I just wait until the local weather gurus call it.

Right, we all can sit and stare at the worst-case scenario, which in this case appears to be the GFS, but there are a lot of other models that suggest not much happening in our area. Arguably, the Euro and the GFS are the top two models out there in use by the meteorologists, but there are actually quite a few. The National Weather Services' forecast usually uses what is called the National Blend of Models (NBM), and it is as suggested...a blending of models. It seems to have its advantages.

 

[LBrandt]

All I know is that I am looking at a 6ft plus snow bank covering my garden. LB

 

[Whisky]

What model does VNL use? Because their forecast for my area next week can suck a bag of dicks.

 

[johnr]

I camp now and then by Manning. A town of one bar and i will say a well-kept bar, a couple of houses and one really nice, huge and i mean huge courthouse. Or so i will assume that is what it is. Maybe a retirement home. Not sure how they can do all that let alone build it. Grass is always as green as it can be and well manicure. The upkeep of that grass and cleaning fee must take the entire tax base of that town/county by itself. db

Its the county seat, and the county building.
Never knew anyone would come to this little gem to camp.
I drive through that town weekly on my way up to the customers I have Killdeer and north.

Had a few beers in that little bar.

Next time you are camping in that area, let me know, we can have a beer and shoot the shit, maybe get a chick to flash us...haha

 

[BDub]

I like the forecast discussion out of Bismarck.

Clusters still showing an active pattern by mid next week as a
large Pacific trough moves onshore and westward. Chances for snow
will return during this time period, along with slightly warmer
temperatures. Just how much snow still remains uncertain. Clusters
that favor the GFS are more north and in ND, while the European
clusters are more south. The mean paints the Interstate 94
corridor and southward with the higher probabilities for snow.
Right now NBM 72 hour chances for snowfall have 20 to 40 percent
chance of at least 6 inches of snowfall in this area next week.
The track of this system will be worth monitoring for those with
any travel plans next week.

 

[SLE]

As far as I'm concerned, it can either do nothing, or it can dump 3 feet, I'm good with either; but don't dump 3" every day with wind. it doesn't stop me from haveing to live my normal day to day and I still have to sit in the tractor and move the shit every day!

 

[risingsun]

There is only one model that is right every single time. And that is good ol Mother Nature. She has always been, and will most likely always be, THEE boss.

 

[LBrandt]

Snow plow came yesterday. It took him 3 full round trips to get our road passable again. LB

 

[lunkerslayer]

https://us1033.com/north-dakota-snowstorm-shaping-up-next-week-could-break-record/

 

[mikef]

https://us1033.com/north-dakota-snowstorm-shaping-up-next-week-could-break-record/

Looks like it’s Going south

 

[watson]

Looks like it’s Going south

Where are you finding that? I only see chances increasing for southern ND, unless that's what you mean by south

 

[BDub]

The latest is predicting some snow Tuesday and not much after that.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2023

A more active pattern returns for the work week, with continued
below average temperatures.

Quiet and cooler on Monday for a transition day in between systems,
with highs in the mid teens to mid 20s. The synoptic pattern gets a
bit messy to start the work week, with a deep closed low off the
west coast moving in, while another trough moves south through the
central Canadian Prairies. The highest chance for accumulating snow
in western and central North Dakota has shifted to earlier in the
week, from the first of multiple waves expected to impact the
region. Chances for light to moderate snow start overnight Monday
night into Tuesday morning, expanding across the area through the
day Tuesday. The latest NBM probabilities keep the chance of at
least 2 inches of snow around 55% across the southern half of the
forecast area, with the probability of at least 4 inches dropping to
around 30%. These probabilities have increased over the past day,
but with the wave and associated surface low somewhat disorganized,
not the highest confidence in how this will evolve. Breezy winds
with this system are a concern, with the recent issues we`ve had
from blowing and drifting snow across the area.

As this wave and precipitation chances move east overnight Tuesday
night, the next shortwave is right behind, but continues to trend
south and keep precipitation chances highest on the South Dakota
border. Probabilities have decreased with the latest NBM run, down
to around 35% of at least 2 inches of snow across our southern
counties. Chances for light snow with this wave increase through the
day Wednesday and into Thursday before tapering off late Thursday.

 

[LBrandt]

Just got our roads plowed.. LB

 

[Pheasant 54]

NOAA has Bismarck at 5.1 for Tuesday at this point .

 

[lunkerslayer]

Bismark needs about 10 inches to break the all time record,

 

[walleyewanker]

Not sure what the big deal is about breaking the record. Been broke numerous times already in last 30 years. How bout we just warm up already and melt this shit. Last time I checked, there's nothing wrong with rain

 

[Twitch]

Not sure what the big deal is about breaking the record. Been broke numerous times already in last 30 years. How bout we just warm up already and melt this shit. Last time I checked, there's nothing wrong with rain

I refer you to post #119…. I see little to no above freezing temps anywhere in the extended forecast unfortunately.

 

[walleyewanker]

I refer you to post #119…. I see little to no above freezing temps anywhere in the extended forecast unfortunatelyI qu

 

[walleyewanker]

Ya this has turned as unwatchable as the news since COVID hit.