Migration

[CatDaddy]

Well, all I can say is you better shoot your share of geese before the Trumpmeister puts a really tall wall up North to keep 'em out. Dang illegals.....

 

[deleted_account]

When you start seeing pics like these it's no longer a question of if the birds will move it's just a question of how far. This particular shot came from the Cypress Hills in the southwest corner of the province with a solid 4 to 10 inches spread from the Montana line up to Saskatoon and its still falling.

i could be way off base here but your telling us 4-10 inches of snow, 200 and some miles north of great falls mt, on what looks to be a giant plateau or small mountain, is going to impact our (nd) waterfowl migration?

 

[dean nelson]

Absolutely the snow stretched across the entire Province from Southwest to Northeast. The area in blue is roughly the heavy snow band that is still falling the area in red is where the main core of the snow geese were and the area and green is where the main core of specklebellys were. The snow goose migration is what I base everything on since they move in tandem with the big northern mallards. They move south at roughly 10 miles a day and if you suddenly leap frog them 100 miles you just sped up the whole maneuver. Now with the huge amount of sheet water up there that will slow things a touch but odds are high that decent flocks of snows will show up a little sooner then what is now normal especially with the cold behind this snow and a full moon on the 15th. How soon they show up i have no idea but it has potential to be substantial. allot easier to see whats going to happen tomorrow when the storm clears out and they get a better handle on the forcast on how cold it's going to get. No matter what birds will be moving in mass and probably are as we type.



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Here's the current radar and that storm has been parked for 35 hours now. Then follow it with forecast like this and a bunch of birds are going to jump further south then what is normal for this point in Oct. The hunters heading for the regina area are probably going to land on the mother load.

 

[Kickemup]

This is what I know about the migration it will get here when it gets here. The migration from the east will start to dwindle down in 2 weeks. Once they have mostly disappeared I will then go hunting every day for a couple weeks. It does not madder to me when the birds get here. Thy will stick around until the snow gets deep or the lakes freeze. Which will be about the 15th of December.

 

[Trip McNeely]

this may not be the grand daddy of the year but it will be a mover no doubt. you havent seen it yet, they will come on the back side
of the system. i cant disagree with anything dean says other than magnitude. it wont be the big one but itll open the door.

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id put my dot on a map somewhere between minot and regina

 

[dean nelson]

Oh I'm in no way saying that our big show for snows or mallards will start from this but it will definitely move that date up posably quite substantially over a normal year. Now specks will be interesting because odds are very high that they will move in big numbers from this storm the only question is to where they stop. Hell I would say it's 50/50 odds the first small flocks of them make an appearance down on the Katie Prairie West of Houston from this those little bastards still like to do the straight shot sometimes. Definatly will be watching Quivira National Wildlife Refuge down in KS since that is their normal stopping spot once they leave the south sacatchwan river and will tell us if it's another over fly year again.

 

[dean nelson]

God I hate environment Canada! They are the worst weather service I've ever seen they do an up date maybe once a day. Have to use US sites to try and figure out what's going on up there. Here is the only decent map I've seen. If accurate the Crosby area may well be in for a decent shot of birds coming down. The two darkest colors are 5 to 10 and 10 to 20.

 

[Duckslayer100]

What's stopping the birds from simply moving laterally into Manitoba?

Honestly question. From my experience, if there's tons of food and water on the ground, biological imperative be damned.

 

[dean nelson]

Once they get setup in the fall migration when they move they will fly their normal rout. In spring birds are probing the snow line trying to find a way through so you often see a fair bit of lateral movement but in fall they will just pick up and fly till they clear it and drop in once over it. One thing that will be interesting to see is it takes a fair bit of snow to get them up and migrating but takes very little snow to keep them flying once up. With the two inches that fell over much of SE SK it may push some of the birds further down then what originally looked like it would. This is by far the worst storm I've seen impact the Hart of the main migration this early in the fall so it's a pure guessing game right now till everything settles out but needless to say one way or the other this is going to work out in our favor big time!

 

[Waterfowler]

Im with you Dean only thing I would say is your red blob for snows should extend further west there are tons there my group of friends that I go to Canada with were scheduled to leave tomorrow for Kindersly, SK just SW of Saskatoon. They were advised from farmers up there no to go because of the snow and mess it left. Most farmers aren't letting hunters in even with 4 wheelers. So they are looking for Plan B and were talking about Crosby. Could be good but my guess is that the majority are from Regina down to border.

 

[dean nelson]

Yeah there are snows all over that part of the province but birds past that red area tend to be California birds so I didn't include them. Same is true with the Speck spot with that area generally splitting in two when they leave with some coming down the central flyaway the rest hopping over the rockies heading for the central valley of California. Buddy got a text from the farmer he stays at on the west side of lake diefenbacher and sent this pic saying they had 10 inches and still snowing off and on today.

 

[Traxion]

From my experience up there the last few years there are still a pile of birds north of that snow. Specks included. There are certainly specks that calendar migrate and end up in Texas early but I've seen lots of specks late, late up there. This should trickle a few whites and specks early for sure but there will be lots to come. I would love if the Canadas got a bit more motivated but they're probably still sun tanning somewhere north of the snow LOL!

 

[dean nelson]

What you see on that radar still is not the edge of the snow it's the edge of the radar. Alberta made it out pretty much Scott free but near 100% of Saskatchewan below the tree line got ten inches plus and most all geese were below the tree line before the storm hit. The snows hanging in the valley near the pas manitoba the main Hudson Bay flyway for snows into Saskatchewan lost 80% of their birds or more last night according to the locals. No question birds will be riding it out in spots but most will be moving into the clear area east of regina. Now to see how cold it gets tonight and tomorrow night especially.

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Here's a map that shows past the tree line. Prince Albert the first town below the trees north of Saskatoon got around 15 inches.

 

[Duckslayer100]

Well, I'm going hunting Sunday regardless. We'll see if any fresh birds are down or if it's the same old brown ducks we've been after for weeks.

I couldn't care less. Right now it's all about sitting in a slough, watching the sunrise, and making some memories.

You definitely aren't going to shoot any from the living room couch.

 

[Motohunter]

Bow hunting Northeast of Bismarck last night you could hear quite a few different groups of specks coming over. It will definitely be interesting to see if any new birds are moving in.

 

[Duckslayer100]

Bow hunting Northeast of Bismarck last night you could hear quite a few different groups of specks coming over. It will definitely be interesting to see if any new birds are moving in.

I hope something slid over to the east with that storm. It's always a crapshoot over here on the outskirts. Sometimes they come right through, other times they're further west.

I guess we'll just have to see this weekend.

 

[dean nelson]

Yep was outside last night for a couple minutes and could hear a couple groups of specks going over. See the first few flocks of them have shown up at Quivira National Wildlife Refuge west southwest of Wichita Kansas. Specks moving was a foregone conclusion as soon as the snow hit where they were at because those birds cannot take snow in the fall for some reason and are always the first to arrive and first to leave.

 

[Duckslayer100]

Literally just stumbled upon this guy. Pretty sure he's from Saskathewan, eh: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8hMNhL6GIiwxAWCpoBvIxQ

Oct. 5 scouting video (field loaded with mallards):


Followed by the Oct. 6 hunt in the snow and wind (two whole birds):


Obviously one hunter in one area...but pretty damn interesting.

 

[dean nelson]

he's a doc in The Pas MB. He limited on the hunt but accidentally turned his camera off for 2 minutes. He's got a one man 50 bird snow goose limit a week ago that has some great footage.

 

[Traxion]

Question is where are all the cranes? Finally saw the first flocks this fall over W SD. Expected a big push with the snow.....