Missouri River rise

[Allen]

Well remember just a bit ago when I was asking about the 2500 to 2800 Surplus we are running each day through town here above the actual release amount? Well now somehow we've magically gone to a couple hundred deficit which is fairly impressive and theoretically impossible unless we have the most insane evaporation amount ever.

I believe the advertised accuracy of the USGS measurement technique is 5%. Or, it was the last time I checked.

 

[Stan's Dad]

if Obi doesnt draw a deer tag this year he's gonna go postal im sure of it.

 

[dean nelson]

I believe the advertised accuracy of the USGS measurement technique is 5%. Or, it was the last time I checked.

Yea but any time you see them go from 62,900 to 59,600 in one shot. Suddenly 3000 CFS that have been there consistently for 3 weeks disappears with a poof makes a guy go hmmmm. Also watching the graph as it ever so slowly drops.....wonder if she ain't getting a touch of scouring going on again clearing out her channel a bit.

 

[JMF]

if Obi doesnt draw a deer tag this year he's gonna go postal im sure of it.

I was going to blame the high water on somebody being able to get 3 buck tags.

 

[Obi-Wan]

if Obi doesnt draw a deer tag this year he's gonna go postal im sure of it.

Don't worry its in the bag I applied for a Mule deer buck in 4D

 

[Ericb]

Corp daily bulletin has 98,000 coming into the lake which is up from yesterdays 91,000 with releases at 60,100. The releases from Fort Peck are 20,400 and the Yellowstone flowing through Sidney Montana are 57,895 ( down about 2,000 from yesterday ) but if I add the two that is 78,295 so somewhere along the line they say we are picking up just shy of 20,000. On 6/20 they predicted 76,000 for inflows for Garrison and on 6/26 they predicted 82,300 inflow for Garrison.

How much shit are they pumping out at Williston?

 

[Obi-Wan]

How much shit are they pumping out at Williston?

Don't know but I have been following along and the inflow spread has never been this far out of wack as it is today.

 

[Ericb]

Don't know but I have been following along and the inflow spread has never been this far out of wack as it is today.

Would seem like a lot but do you think it could be to take into account all the recent rain that could be flowing in from un meters tributaries?

- - - Updated - - -

I wonder if the corps uses a formula based of off the rise of the lake at each elevation to estimate total inflow- outflow. If so bank erosion after 2011 could throw off this formula.

 

[Allen]

Yes, just like in 2011, I would expect to see some "settling" of the river stage as it spends time at a given discharge.

I have no issues with the advertised discharge values. 5% of 60,000 is 3,000 cfs. I am ok with that, although the techs that collected the measurement would likely be disappointed in it.

 

[dean nelson]

Yes, just like in 2011, I would expect to see some "settling" of the river stage as it spends time at a given discharge.

I have no issues with the advertised discharge values. 5% of 60,000 is 3,000 cfs. I am ok with that, although the techs that collected the measurement would likely be disappointed in it.

I'm assuming that the sudden 3000 CFS drop was probably linked to when they took the Manuel reading yesterday? Does that sound plausible to you? I for one have no problem with any of these numbers I'm just curious on the technique used to get them all and how they refine them.

Side note that might interest you is that for the second time in two years the aquifer appears to be running backwards.

 

[Allen]

Would seem like a lot but do you think it could be to take into account all the recent rain that could be flowing in from un meters tributaries?

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I wonder if the corps uses a formula based of off the rise of the lake at each elevation to estimate total inflow- outflow. If so bank erosion after 2011 could throw off this formula.

That is how it's done. You have a tub of known (to a couple of sig figs) volume. How fast it fills is how you calculate inflow. Quite simply, there is not a gage on every tributary. Plus, if it rains right on top of the lake, that too has to be accounted for as it is a direct contributor.

 

[dust in the wind]

https://www.myndnow.com/news/minot-...utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_KX_News

Riverdale, ND - The amount of water pouring in to Lake Sakakwea continues to outpace the forecast inflows from the Corps of Engineers.

Just yesterday, the Corps released a new three-week projection for inflows and releases from the lake.
It predicted inflow of 85,000 CFS yesterday but this morning's observations show inflow was actually 98,000 CFS.
Meanwhile, releases are still scheduled to remain at 60,000 CFS from Garrison Dam through the three-week forecast period.
The Corps predicts inflows will fall below the 60,000 level on July 7th and continue to drop after that.
Sakakawea is now estimated to reach a peak of 1852.8 feet on Monday - barely more than one foot from the lake's maximum level of 1854 feet.

 

[wjschmaltz]

It seems the lake will rise a foot in approximately 4 days with a 38,000 cfs surplus (given approximate lake volume is 315,000 acres). It's not likely going to hold there, but that puts water over the spillway in 6 days. And who knows how they account for tribs in that calculated inflow. They are putting a lot of faith in mother nature to cooperate over the next weeks when people have their whole lives at stake.

 

[guywhofishes]

whole lives at stake?

 

[pluckem]

It seems the lake will rise a foot in approximately 4 days with a 38,000 cfs surplus (given approximate lake volume is 315,000 acres). It's not likely going to hold there, but that puts water over the spillway in 6 days. And who knows how they account for tribs in that calculated inflow. They are putting a lot of faith in mother nature to cooperate over the next weeks when people have their whole lives at stake.

I'm not sure they have a lot of options at this point.

What would a 65k, 70k, or 75k release look like for the Bismarck area right now? The water level has surpassed some of the existing rip rap in some areas and no doubt is causing some erosion and bank loss in others. I don't think any homes are flooding or experiencing any major issues right now but would they if releases were bumped to 70k?

Are you saying the Corp should make the decision to 100% flood out and ruin the lives, as you put it, of a select few to POTENTIALLY save others?

I guess my point is if you had interest in one of the low lying areas or homes that might see damage if the releases are cranked up you are going to say hold at 60k and lets pray the rain doesn't come in the next 7 days. If you have no personal interest in any property or a property that might not see any issues until flows hit 80k you are going to say up it to 75k and give us more buffer.

 

[Wild and Free]

How much inflow does the Little Missouri supply along with all the small creeks and springs and normal watershed run ins along the lake? Just spitballing here as everyone is trying to figure out the difference of inflows not matching but there has to be a value in a lake two hundred miles long with as large of a water shed area it covers along with another small river nobody has referenced I have seen yet in this thread equals a whole lot more inflows than just the Yellowstone and upper missouri.

 

[Obi-Wan]

whole lives at stake?

I assume he means financial lives. Flooding can take serious toll on ones mental state and well being. Back in 2011 there was a older gentlemen that lived in one of the developments S. of Bismarck that had grew up in the home and lived there his entire life other than when he was off at college. He pleaded with the county to put a dike through Sibley park instead of 48th stating that with all his years of wondering through the area he was familiar with the high and low areas. His proposed location would have been shorter than the one that the county installed on 48th and protected more homes. His house was damaged severely in the flood and had to be tore down. A short time after his house was tore down the man committed suicide. Now the proposed dike, that has yet to be installed, runs along the same area's he proposed.

 

[guywhofishes]

thanks for the clarification

yeah - I’m familiar with floods and stress and loss, this stuff is no joke

 

[wjschmaltz]

whole lives at stake?

Although I have no empathy for someone who builds in a floodplain, it is still the responsibility of the COE to prevent flooding to the best of their ability. Sorry I wasn’t more clear – there are people and entire communities downstream with significant financial implications at stake. I will be sure to leave nothing for interpretation next time.

 

[guywhofishes]

I do have empathy for those that live in the flood plain. Now that we have data, maps, technology to reduce risk I don’t have empathy for new builds in risky places - but many had no clue what they were signing up for when they bought.