Missouri river snow pack feed?

[Wild and Free]

Anyone heard what the western snow pack has been this winter and what the lake levels are going todo? Was having a discussion about it at work the other day and nobody has heard what the snow pack was or what to expect for the Missouri river system water levels coming up this year. Was brought up due to the extremely low river levels we have now. Some who have lived in the washburn area have never seen the river as low as it is now based on how much bridge pillar is exposed.

 

[Tim Sandstrom]

I give Nodak permission to bring over the weather and snow pack feeds. Within it there are several links to snow and water level sites.

That said, it's below normal. I myself haven't looked much but last time I did it wasn't looking good. I would suspect a 3-4 foot ish rise for Sakakawea.

 

[dean nelson]

If the corp is right which would be a first oahe is at peak and sak will add about a foot and a half more.

 

[DerHornen]

It sounds like there won't be much of a rise this year, but that could easily change depending on rain patterns in Montana and western ND over the next 3 months. It's a crapshoot to predict right now.

 

[shorthairsrus]

I think u need to look to the south. They r talking flooding hence the flow will be restricted. The only thing looking dry is devils lake.

 

[Allen]

Anyone heard what the western snow pack has been this winter and what the lake levels are going todo? Was having a discussion about it at work the other day and nobody has heard what the snow pack was or what to expect for the Missouri river system water levels coming up this year. Was brought up due to the extremely low river levels we have now. Some who have lived in the washburn area have never seen the river as low as it is now based on how much bridge pillar is exposed.

Umm, what? Last time I checked Washburn is below Garrison dam and the water that runs by there is pretty much only the release out of Garrison Dam. Have they not lived there very long?

 

[Brian Renville]

Doesn't look good as far a runoff goes. The 'Stone is as low as I have seen it and been that way for as long as I have seen it. Just got in from down there and there is a lot of junk coming down right now so someone got some rain but doesn't look like there has been any rise.

 

[Obi-Wan]

Umm, what? Last time I checked Washburn is below Garrison dam and the water that runs by there is pretty much only the release out of Garrison Dam. Have they not lived there very long?

Allen this may come a a surprise to you but the releases out of the dam, which determines the river level at Washburn, are tied to the run off from the mountain snow pack

 

[Wild and Free]

Allen this may come a a surprise to you but the releases out of the dam, which determines the river level at Washburn, are tied to the run off from the mountain snow pack

Thanks for the response Obi, yes this is what I was going for in the question. I have several co-workers from the Washburn area and all have been talking of the low river levels in the area and some have lived there in the area their whole lives and can not remember a time when the water level was this low there.

 

[pluckem]

Thanks for the response Obi, yes this is what I was going for in the question. I have several co-workers from the Washburn area and all have been talking of the low river levels in the area and some have lived there in the area their whole lives and can not remember a time when the water level was this low there.

I would guess the level will have to be adjusted after the 2011 flood if you want to compare water releases to the river elevation at Washburn. The NDGF has said a few times that the flood flows washed out 2' of river bed (not 100% sure on that, but that is what sticks in my head).

So when using the bridge piles as a reference point the levels would have to be dropped by 2' for equivalent water release numbers.

I guess what I am getting at is just because the water level is the lowest observed on the bridge piles in decades does not mean the water coming into Sak or out of the dam is the lowest in that same time frame. The 2011 flood changed things.

 

[Allen]

http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/reports/twregfcast.pdf

These are not unusual releases out of Garrison, by any stretch of the imagination. They are a little low for this time of year, but not that unusual.

As far as releases out of Garrison being determined by spring runoff. Ummm, that's what the damn dam is for, to hold water as you wish until it is full. Releases out of Garrison are more closely tied to power generation than they are to inflow. It is a balance between the two, but when there's a need for power and the use of the water does no harm (creating high water, or needlessly wasting stored waters), power generation generally rules.

Good grief, this isn't rocket science. The data is out there, I didn't even have to go back a full year to find out that from Sept through December the water was lower than now.

- - - Updated - - -

I would guess the level will have to be adjusted after the 2011 flood if you want to compare water releases to the river elevation at Washburn. The NDGF has said a few times that the flood flows washed out 2' of river bed (not 100% sure on that, but that is what sticks in my head).

So when using the bridge piles as a reference point the levels would have to be dropped by 2' for equivalent water release numbers.

I guess what I am getting at is just because the water level is the lowest observed on the bridge piles in decades does not mean the water coming into Sak or out of the dam is the lowest in that same time frame. The 2011 flood changed things.

Much of that initial offset, or scouring, referenced by the NDGF has since reverted to something a bit more close to what it was pre-2011. Without looking at the stage rating curves for a specific site, it's hard to put an exact value on the difference between now and then, but I'd surmise it's around 3/4 of a foot.

 

[Wild and Free]

I would guess the level will have to be adjusted after the 2011 flood if you want to compare water releases to the river elevation at Washburn. The NDGF has said a few times that the flood flows washed out 2' of river bed (not 100% sure on that, but that is what sticks in my head).

So when using the bridge piles as a reference point the levels would have to be dropped by 2' for equivalent water release numbers.

I guess what I am getting at is just because the water level is the lowest observed on the bridge piles in decades does not mean the water coming into Sak or out of the dam is the lowest in that same time frame. The 2011 flood changed things.

I should have expanded on their conversations, the ones who have been boat fishing claim there are a lot more sand bars exposed and most who are boating it in the area are finding it hard to navigate as well not being able to yet find good channels between washburn and Wilton. Sounds like more than sand shift but just plain low levels overall not just using pilings as an indicator. They have mentioned other indicators as well specific to the area.
I grew up in the area myself but have not been by there myself since last year so this is purely hear say on my part.

 

[Vollmer]

I give Nodak permission to bring over the weather and snow pack feeds. Within it there are several links to snow and water level sites.

That said, it's below normal. I myself haven't looked much but last time I did it wasn't looking good. I would suspect a 3-4 foot ish rise for Sakakawea.

Thanks Tim

http://nodakangler.com/forums/content.php?816-nda-resources
(under "resources" link in navigation)

 

[pluckem]

I would guess the level will have to be adjusted after the 2011 flood if you want to compare water releases to the river elevation at Washburn. The NDGF has said a few times that the flood flows washed out 2' of river bed (not 100% sure on that, but that is what sticks in my head).

So when using the bridge piles as a reference point the levels would have to be dropped by 2' for equivalent water release numbers.

I guess what I am getting at is just because the water level is the lowest observed on the bridge piles in decades does not mean the water coming into Sak or out of the dam is the lowest in that same time frame. The 2011 flood changed things.

I haven't been up there myself, just throwing out a potential factor in the difference.

 

[dean nelson]

It was this low last year and most years before that. And expanded version of what Allen posted to show as far back as it shows. Obviously 2009 wins the contest for lowest level.

 

[Bfishn]

Anyone heard what the western snow pack has been this winter and what the lake levels are going todo? Was having a discussion about it at work the other day and nobody has heard what the snow pack was or what to expect for the Missouri river system water levels coming up this year. Was brought up due to the extremely low river levels we have now. Some who have lived in the washburn area have never seen the river as low as it is now based on how much bridge pillar is exposed.

I don't think looking at bridge pilings is an accurate way to measure water levels the river is constantly changing. The graph above only goes back to 2007, but i believe from about early 2000-2007 was some of the lowest levels, much lower than now. Sakakawea and Oahe were at record lows during that time so i assume the river was to.


I was able to find historical data as far back as i wanted. looked back 20 years and the graph looks consistently like the one above. 2009 was lowest in past 20 years.