When Will It End?!

[guywhofishes]

in (sane)?

 

[Paddledogger]

I smell another busted forecast- time will tell.

So do I there Big Iron!!!! Seems like everybody is all over the board on predicting this one. Tropical Tidbit model has only southern North Dakota getting rain first, then some snow beginning Thursday evening and into Friday. Sorry all you ice anglers....but I want the ice to melt. I like to long pole it for pike before Paddlefishing. And since I am still technically in my 12 weeks of back surgery post op until next week, I haven't been able to get up the gumption to step out on the ice this year.

 

[shorthairsrus]

Dean - they never did they say that this would be 100% snow and the numbers i seen for precip was 2.5" water -which even if was in the form of water x10-25" --- now they are talking 1.5" of precip and even that will be part rain

 

[dean nelson]

Yeah it's been going back and forth on the rain snow thing since the beginning. For the last few days till yesterday the rain/Snow change over has been the chief reason the snow totals were going back and forth so massively. One time it would be 75% rain and we only get a few inches of snow the next near all snow and we get a shit ton. Now we have the low going all goofy and the rare occurrence were both snowfall models are predicting snow at a rate of 10 to 1 on water which is a ton compared to yesterday's snow that was somewhere around 30/1.

 

[guywhofishes]

advise from national weather service

”There is potential for a storm Friday and Saturday. But at this point that is about all we know. Storm track, temperatures, and winds are still uncertain so exact impacts are still highly uncertain. Remember to only follow and share weather information from trusted weather sources.”

 

[Mort]

Guess all I can do is sit on the fence and see what happens by thursday,

 

[Twitch]

advise from national weather service

”There is potential for a storm Friday and Saturday. But at this point that is about all we know. Storm track, temperatures, and winds are still uncertain so exact impacts are still highly uncertain. Remember to only follow and share weather information from trusted weather sources.”

Trusted weather sources....so the national weather service and local meteorologists are out then???? Grin

 

[Kurtr]

going to be nice in june seeing green grass when this all melts

 

[Allen]

snowfall models are predicting snow at a rate of 10 to 1 on water which is a ton compared to yesterday's snow that was somewhere around 30/1.

It is exceptionally rare to see either of those ratios. What is more common in ND is a ratio of about 12-13 inches of snow to an inch of water when it's the heavy, wet stuff. Or around 20-24" of snow to an inch of water when it's the light and fluffy. About the only time you see the 30 ratio is when you get a skiff of snow that blows like cotton in the wind, but there's no wind so it falls very lightly and maintains something near it's original crystalline structure, as opposed to blowing around and getting turned into very fine grained snow.

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Trusted weather sources....so the national weather service and local meteorologists are out then???? Grin

I think they are suggesting that you ought not believe anyone who ten days in advance is putting out the graphics from just one of the 10+ models that the NWS looks at to arrive at their forecast. Pretty rare they hang their hat on any one model, usually they blend the models together based on how well they've been performing lately.

So yeah, I don't think they're a fan of the graphics that have been used on this thread.

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Note: I am not a meteorologist, but a well seasoned one once told me that Earth would be uninhabitable if we had to live on days 8-10 of the models.

 

[shorthairsrus]

And dean I am incorrect -- the model you show does refer to inches

 

[dean nelson]

It is exceptionally rare to see either of those ratios. What is more common in ND is a ratio of about 12-13 inches of snow to an inch of water when it's the heavy, wet stuff. Or around 20-24" of snow to an inch of water when it's the light and fluffy. About the only time you see the 30 ratio is when you get a skiff of snow that blows like cotton in the wind, but there's no wind so it falls very lightly and maintains something near it's original crystalline structure, as opposed to blowing around and getting turned into very fine grained snow.

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I think they are suggesting that you ought not believe anyone who ten days in advance is putting out the graphics from just one of the 10+ models that the NWS looks at to arrive at their forecast. Pretty rare they hang their hat on any one model, usually they blend the models together based on how well they've been performing lately.

So yeah, I don't think they're a fan of the graphics that have been used on this thread.

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Note: I am not a meteorologist, but a well seasoned one once told me that Earth would be uninhabitable if we had to live on days 8-10 of the models.

So how much snow did we get and what was the SWE? The 30 to 1 is based on the numbers that have come out of your office. Pretty sure the 9.5 in Northern Bismarck is BS but the weather services 3 in was based on a 12:16 p.m. reading. which we all know we got more snow after that. But going by 3 inches of snow by 1 pm and .10 inches of water and that works out to be 30 to 1. Legitimate question here but i would have to assume by your statement that the water equivalent they're reporting is inaccurate for one reason or another?

 

[Allen]

Numbers are always fun.

When I look at the CF6 (Monthly Climate Data) for Bismarck, the numbers I assume you are using are for the 8th? On the 8th we reported 3.3 inches of snow with 0.15 inches of water. 3.3/0.15 = 22

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http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=bis

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p.s. Snow is the most difficult thing to measure because of wind. One would think technology would solve this eventually, but it sure hasn't as of yet.

 

[risingsun]

in (sane)?

in (comprehensible) ?

 

[NodakBuckeye]

In several forecast discussions for the last storm, forecasters stated the models had overdone snow ratios and also closed low versus open, more progressive (I hate that word) systems for the previous events this month Bismarck has been saying spreads for QPF, snow amounts and low positions are all over but they have changed forecast wording after only a couple runs showing changes for this week's storm. I think it was kinda gutsy mentioning heavy snow at times for Thursday night and Friday for my area 6-7 days out. They have since removed that wording; lowering pecip % chances for both days after models moved low center south and moving quicker. They do have a thankless job.

Another 36 hours and they might nail something down, depends on what the models say and how adept the forecaster is in blending solutions, recent events, model performance and his or her gut. Lots of ranchers paying close attention.

 

[You]

in (comprehensible) ?

in (continent) ?

 

[dean nelson]

Numbers are always fun.

When I look at the CF6 (Monthly Climate Data) for Bismarck, the numbers I assume you are using are for the 8th? On the 8th we reported 3.3 inches of snow with 0.15 inches of water. 3.3/0.15 = 22

- - - Updated - - -

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=bis

- - - Updated - - -

p.s. Snow is the most difficult thing to measure because of wind. One would think technology would solve this eventually, but it sure hasn't as of yet.

See that's where the numbers go all wonky because they have 3 inches listed at 12:16 and .10 inches of water ....so that works out to 30 to 1 but if the 3.3 is right that means the snow flipped to the other side of the spectrum the last few hours with .3 inches of snow equaling .05 inches of water or a 6 to 1 ratio. So obviously there's some significant inaccuracies coming into play I just have no idea which way they're going.

 

[risingsun]

in (continent) ?

Hopefully the end will be in.... (sight)

 

[ndfinfan]

in (continent) ?

in (conceivable) ?

 

[NodakBuckeye]

in (conceivable) ?

In (convenient truth) my ass.

 

[dean nelson]

in (conceivable) ?