Missouri River rise

[pluckem]

Looking at the projections, it looks like next Tuesday is the day where the inflow and outflow (discharge) should be equal at 60,000 cfs.

http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/reports/twregfcast.pdf

With the forecast of a dry spell for a bit, that should help keep the COE from needing to increase the release and they should be able to either maintain the release the forecast shows or even reduce it to 55,000 to help the river concerns a little bit.

Enjoy the heat everybody! Stay SAFE and keep yourself hydrated. Speaking from someone who suffered heat exhaustion, it is OK to drink a beer, then glass/bottle of water before the next barley pop. HAPPY HOOKIN!!! #$%^&>

Lets Hope!

Im pretty sure if you looked at the projections a week ago its showed the inflows and outflows coming close this week and the forecast had sun for 10 days. And then we get some isolated t-storms forecasted and next thing you know get 2.5-5" dropped on us over the course of two nights.

Things change in a hurry.

 

[WormWiggler]

is it going over the spillway yet?

 

[DirtyMike]

Snapped a pic from spillway bay yesterday but I can’t upload it. Unless, Vollmer comes back from vacation to fix the issue....

 

[Paddledogger]

is it going over the spillway yet?

No, but on a windy day out of the NW, it could easily splash over the gates.

 

[Allen]

Just curious here, but what "concerns" do you have in mind? We are still some 1.25 ft below the local definition of flooding, are their significant impacts I'm not aware of at these levels?

Looking at the projections, it looks like next Tuesday is the day where the inflow and outflow (discharge) should be equal at 60,000 cfs.

http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/reports/twregfcast.pdf

With the forecast of a dry spell for a bit, that should help keep the COE from needing to increase the release and they should be able to either maintain the release the forecast shows or even reduce it to 55,000 to help the river concerns a little bit.

Enjoy the heat everybody! Stay SAFE and keep yourself hydrated. Speaking from someone who suffered heat exhaustion, it is OK to drink a beer, then glass/bottle of water before the next barley pop. HAPPY HOOKIN!!! #$%^&>

 

[Paddledogger]

Just curious here, but what "concerns" do you have in mind? We are still some 1.25 ft below the local definition of flooding, are their significant impacts I'm not aware of at these levels?

The "concerns" I hear on the "fake news" of residents and areas is general along the river experiencing shoreline erosion with the current level. Or are the news reports all BS?

 

[dean nelson]

Well there no debating we are experiencing significant shoreline erosion both in the residential areas and in the wma's south of town and I'm sure the same is true up North so anything less they could send through would definitely help that situation. That said they clearly need to drop her down to make room for next spring and that definitely is going to require some fairly High releases for a fairly long time most likely right up till freeze up. Also not to mention almost all the boat ramps are closed which is definitely going to have a negative impact on a fair few businesses especially places like Pony Express.

 

[Obi-Wan]

I have heard that with the raised ground water some basements are getting seepage and others that have their sump pumps running almost non stop. It appears from my shallow well the ground water in our area has come up about 12' in the last week to ten days

 

[Allen]

Whoa, your groundwater is up 12 feet? That sounds more like a broken water main than a corresponding rise with the river.


Yeah, the erosion is certainly ongoing, but I don't know if I think it's better or worse now than when the river was at 11-12.5 ft. It seemed like it was out of control at that elevation, probably because it was just the "perfect" elevation at Merriwethers and Fox to overtop the riprap and beat on the dirt/grass. Now that the dirt/grass are covered with water, it is actually sheltered from wave action and only susceptible to current. Guess we'll see in a few months when the water goes down.

 

[Obi-Wan]

Whoa, your groundwater is up 12 feet? That sounds more like a broken water main than a corresponding rise with the river.


Yeah, the erosion is certainly ongoing, but I don't know if I think it's better or worse now than when the river was at 11-12.5 ft. It seemed like it was out of control at that elevation, probably because it was just the "perfect" elevation at Merriwethers and Fox to overtop the riprap and beat on the dirt/grass. Now that the dirt/grass are covered with water, it is actually sheltered from wave action and only susceptible to current. Guess we'll see in a few months when the water goes down.

Typo 12"

 

[Allen]

No, currently at 1853.14 MSL, which is 0.02 (within measurement error when you include wind) of yesterday's 1853.16 ft above MSL.

is it going over the spillway yet?

- - - Updated - - -

Typo 12"

Whew!

 

[dean nelson]

Typo 12"

Yeah but it's definitely still in the perfect zone for other areas namely the wma's. The area to the right of the T down at the gun range is getting beat up pretty good and they have had to move the polls along the edge back far enough that and further and it will be blocked off by the fence to the right. The boat ramp parking lots taking a pretty good beating too. But like you said the difference that ten or fifteen thousand cubic feet per second make would be insignificant in this particular situation.

 

[Allen]

By the way, who was it that gets the "Blind Pig Found an Acorn" award for guessing 1853?

 

[wstnodak]

Well I took a shot at 1853.5 but I wouldn’t call it a blind pig guess. I’ve been at the same resort pretty much every summer for the last 30 years. I pay attention to details so i would call it more of an educated guess. I think we bet a steak dinner on it didn’t we?:;:

 

[dean nelson]

Looks like today is the day she crosses over to good side of water coming in vs going out. She's currently at 61,000 coming in and 60,100 going out.

 

[dean nelson]

Well MacLean bottoms has begun to flood out in the south end. Side note if you're a bow fisherman and you've ever dreamed of getting into the mother of all North Dakota gar shoots your in luck. Just go west of the T to where the culverts are and you will find dozens and dozens and dozens of gar there. Would guess the road west of the T will be blocked within the next couple days and the area to the right the water is now on top of the bank only 50 yards to the east of where it meets the river so it's days are also numberd.

 

[Allen]

What would a guy do with one of those gar? Do people eat them?

Outside of an apocalypse...

 

[JayKay]

What would a guy do with one of those gar? Do people eat them?

Outside of an apocalypse...

Hide them in the trunk of your pal's car - A la Grumpy Old Men..

 

[BDub]

My guess is that there are way more gar in the river than one would think. During the flood of 11, there were hundreds of gar in the water as it went down just in my yard. 3 to 4 inches long.

 

[Allen]

Well MacLane bottoms has begun to flood out in the south end.

p.s. Mclean Bottoms is Corps of Engineers owned for a reason. It was purchased specifically for inundation when they were to run Oahe at full pool and into its Exclusive Flood Control zone. It's a bit of a stretch to refer to it as "flooded" when it's supposed to be the bottom of the lake every so often. And for that matter, Oahe is not yet even in its Exclusive Flood Control zone.

Inundated is a better word for what's taking place down there.