Melt - thoughts

[shorthairsrus]

I just took a look at the 14 day --- shows dry --- so dry it made my mouth water.

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it could be one of those strange years -- in which the melt is slow --- snow on ground until the end of april ---lakes open late may ---- summer second week in july - and chucked full of snow by middle of september.

 

[Lungdeflator]

Or like last year.....-20 to 60 in a 2 week span. 18" of snow to green grass in a 2 week span. 0 bugs to 500 gazillion ticks in a 2 week span.

 

[risingsun]

http://www.minotdailynews.com/news/...runoff-forecast-for-the-missouri-river-basin/

 

[Bfishn]

^Good, keep Sak full!

 

[Rowdie]

Or like last year.....-20 to 60 in a 2 week span. 18" of snow to green grass in a 2 week span. 0 bugs to 500 gazillion ticks in a 2 week span.

This is what will happen, only It'll be windy and chilly for a month first.

 

[Davy Crockett]

Is there more potential for ice jams with a fast thaw ?

 

[Bfishn]

Is there more potential for ice jams with a fast thaw ?

In my armchair biologist opinion, with a late fast thaw and more ice than normal because of the cold winter, I would think there is a much higher chance of ice jams this year..

 

[Davy Crockett]

Watched the flood forecast on the news and noticed they don't mention or factor in ice jams. I agree this could be a year for some major ice jams, There will be plenty of it to cause problems.

 

[Allen]

Is there more potential for ice jams with a fast thaw ?

Yes. A slow melt and modest runoff allows the ice to deteriorate in place before it starts to move. A quick melt with a lot of water hitting the streams, can raise the water levels to a point where the ice becomes dislodged from the shore and as water levels rise enough, the surface area of the river becomes enough to where the ice can start to move and breakup. Only for it to get stuck on some constriction farther down the river.

 

[wjschmaltz]

Serious question because I'm a far ways away and haven't drilled a hole - is the ice really that thick?

Less than two months ago there were conversations about open water on Sak and the river being open through Bismarck. And then it got a little cold and dumped snow on top of snow on top of snow and then finally the brutal cold moved in. Seems like the ice should have been very well insulated before the real cold hit.

I'm sure guys that are commenting on thickness have first hand experience drilling holes but it seems like from the outside looking in that it would be a less than average ice year (when we used to be driving on the ice no problem by Christmas and it was cold as hell from Thanksgiving to March 1).

Just curious. Regardless, hopefully it's a slow melt and not the disaster that was breakup 10 years ago where we had 100 inches of snow melt in 6 hours.

 

[Captain Ahab]

Serious question because I'm a far ways away and haven't drilled a hole - is the ice really that thick?

Less than two months ago there were conversations about open water on Sak and the river being open through Bismarck. And then it got a little cold and dumped snow on top of snow on top of snow and then finally the brutal cold moved in. Seems like the ice should have been very well insulated before the real cold hit.

I'm sure guys that are commenting on thickness have first hand experience drilling holes but it seems like from the outside looking in that it would be a less than average ice year (when we used to be driving on the ice no problem by Christmas and it was cold as hell from Thanksgiving to March 1).

Just curious. Regardless, hopefully it's a slow melt and not the disaster that was breakup 10 years ago where we had 100 inches of snow melt in 6 hours.

I don’t think it’s thicker than last year at this point. Just way more snow.

 

[JayKay]

I don’t think it’s thicker than last year at this point. Just way more snow.

In Bismarck, we have snow, but the past several snowfalls have been dry as popcorn farts. As a matter of fact, one good ripper, and my triple driveway is mostly cleared.

Tomorrow, I may be singing a different tune.

 

[MSA]

Me thinks it's gonna be a good year for Creek chubs

 

[watson]

Because Fargo was given some more federal money for the diversion it could be a perfect melt and turn popcorn fart dry and all we'll hear about is flood so the diversion authority can keep the topic in the spotlight

 

[guywhofishes]

^ time to put this in the political bin

 

[dean nelson]

^Good, keep Sak full!

Yes but remember when we are dealing with it being at near full pool at the start are the years they have to crank it up and we end up blowing the damn smelt out of her and destroy the fishery for a decade!

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In Bismarck, we have snow, but the past several snowfalls have been dry as popcorn farts. As a matter of fact, one good ripper, and my triple driveway is mostly cleared.

Tomorrow, I may be singing a different tune.

they have been a .10 to a .15 of an inch of water per shot so its not much per bout but adds up to give up one of the wettest February's on record. Oh and as far as today goes we have 2 tenths of an inch of precip already and it's only been snowing for 4 hours. In the end we have had enough precip to take from sever drought last fall in places to all good so that's not to bad of a deal.

 

[njsimonson]

Meteostar 16-day shows a warm-up in two weeks. Keep your fingers crossed!

 

[guywhofishes]

we need lots of melting days accompanied by freezing nights... above 32 nights are bad, mmkay?

 

[shorthairsrus]

No warm up in sight.

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[dean nelson]

No warm up in sight.

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Well there is a bit of relativity that needs to be added in there. Now by next Friday our average daytime high is 40 degrees so although we'll possibly get somewhat close to that and on the following week get up into the forties yet will never truly break over the average line so it will automatically list us a cold but in the end it'll still feel like a hell of a warm up to us compared to what we did have.

Side note we are now at a half inch of water equivalent already