Sak, it's been a good run!

[guywhofishes]

Wut? Someone esplain - me no understanding.

 

[guywhofishes]

sudden ice formation ice jams?

 

[Bfishn]

sudden ice formation ice jams?

Recent cold weather has started producing small sheets of ice moving
through the Bismarck/Mandan area on the Missouri River. Even colder
weather beginning late Wednesday, and lasting well into the third
full week of January, will increase the production of ice on the
river. Currently, there is significant open water south of Bismarck.
However, the ice sheets traditionally get caught in the Missouri
River bends near the University of Mary. As the sheets of ice
accumulate, they substantially restrict flow in the river and often
cause a rapid rise in water levels near the ice. Historically, this
rise has been between 5 and 7 feet. The current water level at the
Bismarck gage on the Missouri River is at 4.9 feet. As ice
accumulates, a rapid rise to a water level between 9.5 and 12 feet
is likely.

Once the ice starts accumulating south of Bismarck, water levels
often rise to their maximum level in less than 24 hours. Residents
near the river should be watchful of rapidly changing conditions and
report any problematic high water to your local emergency manager.

 

[Allen]

sudden ice formation ice jams?

Yes, the Missouri is currently open in the Bismarck area. As we are now seeing ice floes coming downstream, they will eventually get "stuck", most likely in the meanders down by the Univ of Mary. Once they do that, the ones coming in behind them will run into those already stuck, and when they do, they start to flip from the horizontal to the vertical. This obstructs the river's cross-section that most of the flow once occupied, so the river has to rise in order to accommodate the existing flow.

So yeah, it essentially creates an ice jam every year when the river gains ice.

Then to top it off, Bismarckians (at least a segment of the population) think it will be fun to go walk around on the Missouri in the Bismarck area not realizing that it isn't a solid sheet of ice, rather it's a river filled with ice cubes. Walking on ice cubes is a recipe for involuntarily joining the Polar Bear club. It will eventually solidify to some extent, but early on it can be a real danger.

 

[Allen]

Oh yeah, and new residents down on the river front have a tendency to get nervous when they get home from work and the river is 5-7 ft higher than they remember it being just that morning.

 

[guywhofishes]

Would be interesting to observe - but also slow enough to be the equivalent of watching paint dry.

Somebody go down to the bend that jams and set up a time-lapse camera.

TIA

 

[Allen]

Would be interesting to observe - but also slow enough to be the equivalent of watching paint dry.

Somebody go down to the bend that jams and set up a time-lapse camera.

TIA

Not by the U. of Mary, but the USGS river gage in Bismarck has a camera. It's about half of the way down their page for the gage: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitori...rameterCode=00065&period=P7D&showMedian=false

As ice collects, you will hopefully be able to see it taking place in the daylight.

 

[Allen]

@guywhofishes

Here's a snip of the ice coming downstream yesterday. She's a little slushy this morning after an inch of snow overnight.

 

[WormWiggler]

The barge business needs to go the way of the dodo bird imho. How it pencils out and how they have so much pull is beyond me. The pencil out being the biggest question mark

i was told the barge thing is a smoke screen, the real reason for the river management is to keep the riverboat casinos running...

 

[Slappy]

Not by the U. of Mary, but the USGS river gage in Bismarck has a camera. It's about half of the way down their page for the gage: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitori...rameterCode=00065&period=P7D&showMedian=false

As ice collects, you will hopefully be able to see it taking place in the daylight.

Pretty cool to watch it rise and lock up in the last few seconds of the time lapse video.

Thanks @Allen.

 

[Allen]

Pretty cool to watch it rise and lock up in the last few seconds of the time lapse video.

Thanks @Allen.

You are more than welcome. Interestingly, since the flood of 2011, the current rise in the river of only ~2.8 ft is by far the smallest. The average is something over 5 ft with a range of 4.9 - 6.9 ft. I am not sure why this year it was so little but it's kind of fun to watch in real time if you can find where the ice is grinding to a stop.

Similarly, if you ever get a chance to stand by a river as the spring ice comes off, it's kind of eery to watch and hear. Note, don't do it along the Yellowstone, I've seen videos of greyhound sized icebergs skiing up about 20 yds on the shoreline in MT. At first when I watched that video, I was like why doesn't someone go rescue those picnic tables, and then as the iceberg came ashore, it was pretty apparent why "it's just a picnic table" must have been crossing the mind of the videographer.

The Heart R. as it passes through Mandan is another fun one to watch as the ice starts to break up in the spring. Ice jams and Mandan go together like PB and J.

 

[Slappy]

Any theory on why the rise was so much less this year? Just plain luck or a function of Garrison discharge rate, current state of main channel, sudden temperature plunge?

I have watched the Heart let loose in Mandan and upstream of Heart Butte and it is indeed a sight to behold.

Also had the fun experience of boating through the deteriorated ice sheet that let loose from Rice Creek one spring day years ago. I was happy to make it back to the ramp.

 

[Allen]

I "thought" the river looked slower and somewhat more viscous than normal above the upstream edge of the ice. Maybe it was just slushier. Our drop to such chilly temps was maybe quicker than normal, plus discharge out of Garrison's temperature would be closer to freezing temps than early December allowing for an overall faster rate of ice production.

Anyway, the bottom line is that collisions between the downstream moving ice pans were overall less violent, and this helped prevent the pans going from horizontal to vertical. You can see this in that the river's ice surface is somewhat less jagged than in past years. Anyway, that's kind of the Cliff Notes version of why it didn't rise as high, but what the major factor that drove it isn't as clear.

One thing is for sure, it happened pretty quickly. I was watching the ice down at the Desert late in the afternoon the day before it showed up in Bismarck. It filled in quickly.

 

[guywhofishes]

YIKES

Solid ice remained in place Monday over much of the Kankakee River (IL).

(Will County Emergency Management Agency)

 

[Slappy]

Just looked at the updated snow water charts and no surprise it's not good.

 

[SLE]

Nobody out west has any real snow pack. most places sitting between 45-65% average. Record low all through the west right now from the big horns all the way to Idaho. Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona and California seem to be where the white stuff is dropping. going to need a big weather pattern shift if we want the lake to stay up. Looking to be an easy year on the check book for the sleds, hard to break them if you can't ride them!

 

[Kurtr]

Im hoping for a wet spring with all the fog. I want all the sloughs and breeding grounds to stay full for another good year of duck production

 

[guywhofishes]

I look at the lack of snow and think about how frustrating owning a sled has to be.

Yikes.

 

[Ruttin]

I look at the lack of snow and think about how frustrating owning a sled has to be.

Yikes.

I would agree with a new sled. If they are used and paid for it can be handled

 

[risingsun]

Only bright spot since there is no snow pack. Sakakawea is 8.9' higher now than at the same time last year. Hopefully the corp doesn't do anything drastic to drop it.