March Blizzards

[zoops]

moisture is always better when the GROUND is not frozen -- how much does this do the soil good -not much. We have ground frozen down deep this year. I would rather see little or no snow ---and a nice warm spring with rains after planting thank you

Seems snow does wonders for runoff/filling up sloughs/lakes. Definitely will need spring rains as well to recharge the soil.

 

[Mort]

uummm---mar '66---lets see I was 3....so that year seems a little fuzzy in my recollection, but I remember lots of snow...

 

[ktm450]

Model runs have about double since yesterday.

please be true! have a bunch of number 1 diesel to burn up. lol

 

[Paddledogger]

Seems snow does wonders for runoff/filling up sloughs/lakes. Definitely will need spring rains as well to recharge the soil.

SW part of the state went into the winter in drought, so not much moisture to freeze up the soil, so this storm will do western ND good for both soil and watersheds. I just wish the temps would rebound higher than forecasted next week to melt this off. Not to wish the ice away too fast for the ice anglers, it's just that I like to sit on shore basking in the sun with a barley pop and long pole it with some smelt hoping for a fun fight with a big pike to pickle.

 

[andyb15]

Where are you seeing these models? It seems like none of the meteorologists want to throw a prediction out.

Model runs have about double since yesterday.

 

[Allen]

moisture is always better when the GROUND is not frozen -- how much does this do the soil good -not much. We have ground frozen down deep this year. I would rather see little or no snow ---and a nice warm spring with rains after planting thank you

Depends on what you want the moisture to do. If you need soil moisture, gentle April rains are the best. If you need runoff to fill reservoirs/ponds/dugouts, I'll take the snow.

The soils have been dry as heck since last fall, but the cold temps have pushed down to 60 inches in some places despite the relatively warm winter. This suggests they are bone dry (and without a good cover of insulating snow). What happens then when you get some liquid water on the ground is that the water soaks a little ways into the soil before it freezes. This forms what I sometimes call the hard candy coating on the ground surface, which makes the ground much less permeable.

 

[BDub]

I check out two sites for models. It takes a bit of clicking to follow but interesting.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

 

[Paddledogger]

I check out two sites for models. It takes a bit of clicking to follow but interesting.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

Wow.....that moisture content from the www.pivotalweather.com is like WOW. Looks like Bismarck and NW to Beulah/Hazen might be 2" of moisture. (Then I whistle and say.....HOLY CRAP). Looks like good moisture all around the state.

 

[Allen]

Wow.....that moisture content from the www.pivotalweather.com is like WOW. Looks like Bismarck and NW to Beulah/Hazen might be 2" of moisture. (Then I whistle and say.....HOLY CRAP). Looks like good moisture all around the state.

Remember, that information isn't actually being generated by Pivotal Weather, they are just pilfering (legally, I might add) the various models out there from government sources and putting it on their webpage. One of the better and more locked down models that they don't have is the European (ECWMF), the Euro model is generally not available for sharing. It is, however, available to the National Weather Service forecast staff to use as a comparison to their own models.

2 inches of liquid water equivalent is a good start to lessening the effects of the drought, but we'll just have to see where the band of heaviest moisture crosses the state, and how that jives with air temps. A single degree or two will make a big difference with how much is received as rain vs snow, that would be for eastern ND out to about Bismarck. Places in the SE may see mostly rain, where by the time you get to Bismarck it will be mostly snow. At least, that's what I've been hearing over the past couple of days.

I should have spent another week in Greece. Then all this stuff would be history by the time I got back.

 

[Paddledogger]

Ya...I know a lot of these models are assumptions and are estimates from that various group of meteorologist. The only thing that is definite is that we are going to get moisture. How much? Who knows!!! All we can do is plan, prepare. It is a good time to bring the rods indoors and restring them for the summer....maybe even tie up some spinners...or even Paddlefish rigs. This will be a fun time to play with the toys!

 

[BDub]

That explains why I can't find the European model.

Remember, that information isn't actually being generated by Pivotal Weather, they are just pilfering (legally, I might add) the various models out there from government sources and putting it on their webpage. One of the better and more locked down models that they don't have is the European (ECWMF), the Euro model is generally not available for sharing. It is, however, available to the National Weather Service forecast staff to use as a comparison to their own models.

2 inches of liquid water equivalent is a good start to lessening the effects of the drought, but we'll just have to see where the band of heaviest moisture crosses the state, and how that jives with air temps. A single degree or two will make a big difference with how much is received as rain vs snow, that would be for eastern ND out to about Bismarck. Places in the SE may see mostly rain, where by the time you get to Bismarck it will be mostly snow. At least, that's what I've been hearing over the past couple of days.

I should have spent another week in Greece. Then all this stuff would be history by the time I got back.

 

[Allen]

Yep, they charge for it and have restrictions on direct sharing of output/images from it.

 

[watson]

I'm in the middle of calving and don't want any of the shit...

 

[MarbleEyez]

I'm in the middle of calving and don't want any of the shit...

Your cattle will thank you when they've got green grass to eat in June!

 

[gr8outdoors]

If the calves get buried in snow n die, they won't need to worry bout eating:;:huh

 

[watson]

Your cattle will thank you when they've got green grass to eat in June![/QUOTE


calves that died because of snow, rain and mud don't eat,. Not to hard to understand

 

[Downrigger]

Best of luck watson!

 

[Bacon]

Your cattle will thank you when they've got green grass to eat in June![/QUOTE


calves that died because of snow, rain and mud don't eat,. Not to hard to understand

Good luck. I used to calve in February. That’s why I calve in May.

 

[LBrandt]

cold and snow not the best but wet snow and wind can do livestock in twice as fast with no mercy.

 

[Fisherman25]

moisture is always better when the GROUND is not frozen -- how much does this do the soil good -not much. We have ground frozen down deep this year. I would rather see little or no snow ---and a nice warm spring with rains after planting thank you

They claim in much of the state the sub soil is so dry that frost is nonexistent. If that’s the case, it’ll soak in.

- - - Updated - - -

Remember, that information isn't actually being generated by Pivotal Weather, they are just pilfering (legally, I might add) the various models out there from government sources and putting it on their webpage. One of the better and more locked down models that they don't have is the European (ECWMF), the Euro model is generally not available for sharing. It is, however, available to the National Weather Service forecast staff to use as a comparison to their own models.

2 inches of liquid water equivalent is a good start to lessening the effects of the drought, but we'll just have to see where the band of heaviest moisture crosses the state, and how that jives with air temps. A single degree or two will make a big difference with how much is received as rain vs snow, that would be for eastern ND out to about Bismarck. Places in the SE may see mostly rain, where by the time you get to Bismarck it will be mostly snow. At least, that's what I've been hearing over the past couple of days.

I should have spent another week in Greece. Then all this stuff would be history by the time I got back.

Just curious, if the ECWMF is a better model, why is the NWS always so hesitant to believe it? I constantly read their discussion notes and it seems like they’re super conservative about buying into it?