30000cfs ???

[wildeyes]

I been hearing that the dam releases are going to 30000cfs. I see in the paper we are at 24000cfs today and that the release gets to 30000 its going to stay there for the summer. did anybody else hear this. Personally for me this makes for good fishing.

 

[Bfishn]

It's actually going to 32,000 for June-Aug.

http://bismarcktribune.com/news/sta...cle_17f24a64-86ae-5708-b1b3-e61f4fbfbec9.html

 

[JayKay]

right by the book, no?

 

[Obi-Wan]

So the COE just realized now that it snowed in Montana and the lake is full so they need to up the flows. I went to their website and tried to find the daily flows for the year which used to be easily accessible but it seems they have cleverly hidden it, so it appears they did learn something from the flood of 2011

 

[Bfishn]

So the COE just realized now that it snowed in Montana and the lake is full so they need to up the flows. I went to their website and tried to find the daily flows for the year which used to be easily accessible but it seems they have cleverly hidden it, so it appears they did learn something from the flood of 2011

They kind of have to wait until the ice is gone before they can up the flows much. The river south of Bismarck has only been open for two weeks or so and there is still a fairly large sheet of ice as of yesterday from about cattail down across the border.

 

[guywhofishes]

One big freak spring drencher out west and we're right back to 2011? Ha ha ah (nervous laughter).

 

[Allen]

One big freak spring drencher out west and we're right back to 2011? Ha ha ah (nervous laughter).

Err, huh? That one rain you speak of would be of Biblical proportions. Remember, it took 4-6 weeks of repetitive rains in 2011 to push the Missouri to the levels eventually reached, even after having a well above normal plains and mountain snowpack. Some places in MT received more rain in one storm than their normal average moisture for a year.

Personally, I don't plan on losing any sleep over the prospect of a Missouri River flood this year.

 

[guywhofishes]

my bad - carry on

 

[Obi-Wan]

On 1-1-17 they were releasing 16,000 and I would assume the river was frozen over by then so why did they drop the releases between 13,000 to 14,000 though Feb & Mar with it getting as low as 12,800. Their operating plan is reactive
not pro-active when it comes to flood control.

They kind of have to wait until the ice is gone before they can up the flows much. The river south of Bismarck has only been open for two weeks or so and there is still a fairly large sheet of ice as of yesterday from about cattail down across the border.

 

[wildeyes]

I know since the flood the lake is lower in the fall but hey the CEO got this......HA HA AH (nervous laugh) I feel you Guywithnervouslaugh.

 

[guywhofishes]

I defer to Alan who is a much more aware observer of western drainage info than I - I was mostly guessing - hee hee

 

[Allen]

On 1-1-17 they were releasing 16,000 and I would assume the river was frozen over by then so why did they drop the releases between 13,000 to 14,000 though Feb & Mar with it getting as low as 12,800. Their operating plan is reactive
not pro-active when it comes to flood control.

While I am sure you have heard this before, the dams were not built with Flood Control as their exclusive purpose. It is a balancing act and if a person (Corps) were to pro-actively plan for a flood the size of the 2011 event, they would have to start in October/November.

And then when the snowpack were to not materialize and the lake finds itself short of water, then those who like a full Lake Sak/Oahe/Peck, etc are going to be screaming bloody murder.

Personally, I think a person should have their frigging head examined if they want to work for the taxpayer in managing something like a river the size of the Missouri. What a crap job!

 

[Brian Renville]

Err, huh? That one rain you speak of would be of Biblical proportions. Remember, it took 4-6 weeks of repetitive rains in 2011 to push the Missouri to the levels eventually reached, even after having a well above normal plains and mountain snowpack. Some places in MT received more rain in one storm than their normal average moisture for a year.

Personally, I don't plan on losing any sleep over the prospect of a Missouri River flood this year.

Yep on April 30th we recieved at least a foot and a half of super wet snow on top of soil that couldn't handle any more. I remember having a yard with a big crawler about every foot a week before when it rained for 3 days. Then a few days after it rained for 10 days just after most folks in the country finally got their power turned back on. West of here was even worse with the constant downpour. Missouri is about back to normal for this time of year after some early high flows under the ice and so is the Yellowstone.

 

[Obi-Wan]

Allen you must have forgotten that they were already going to release 75,000 before the rains in Montana and it was not weeks of rain it was a couple events. The flood really didn't get going until early to mid May and was ramped up in the 1st week in June. I am not saying this is a repeat of 2011 but the COE is acting the same now as they did in 2011

Err, huh? That one rain you speak of would be of Biblical proportions. Remember, it took 4-6 weeks of repetitive rains in 2011 to push the Missouri to the levels eventually reached, even after having a well above normal plains and mountain snowpack. Some places in MT received more rain in one storm than their normal average moisture for a year.

Personally, I don't plan on losing any sleep over the prospect of a Missouri River flood this year.

 

[Bfishn]

On 1-1-17 they were releasing 16,000 and I would assume the river was frozen over by then so why did they drop the releases between 13,000 to 14,000 though Feb & Mar with it getting as low as 12,800. Their operating plan is reactive
not pro-active when it comes to flood control.

So what would have been an acceptable "pro-active" release for Jan-Mar?

 

[Allen]

Allen you must have forgotten that they were already going to release 75,000 before the rains in Montana and it was not weeks of rain it was a couple events. The flood really didn't get going until early to mid May and was ramped up in the 1st week in June. I am not saying this is a repeat of 2011 but the COE is acting the same now as they did in 2011

I respectfully disagree.

 

[Obi-Wan]

So what would have been an acceptable "pro-active" release for Jan-Mar?

Leaving more than 15' of freeboard for flood control would be # 1 I don't think 15' is enough of a cushion for flood control which was proven in 2011 by the lake going from 40.7 to 54.5 at which it tops out, god only knows how much the lake would have risen if they did not open the gates to 150,000.

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I respectfully disagree.

https://www.timetoast.com/timelines/missouri-river-flooding-2011

 

[johnr]

my bad - carry on

haha, you suck

 

[Bfishn]

Leaving more than 15' of freeboard for flood control would be # 1 I don't think 15' is enough of a cushion for flood control which was proven in 2011 by the lake going from 40.7 to 54.5 at which it tops out, god only knows how much the lake would have risen if they did not open the gates to 150,000.

As Allen said above, you can't manage a system based on an extreme event that might happen once in a hundred years. They could have had 30' of space that year and we still would have flooded. We will never contain mother nature.

I would consider one flood in 65 years to be pretty good "flood control", it would have been so much worse without the dam. Its not "if" the river will flood again its "when", it might be next year, it might be 100 years. If you cant accept that uncertainty, then its time to move to higher ground.

 

[Obi-Wan]

As Allen said above, you can't manage a system based on an extreme event that might happen once in a hundred years. They could have had 30' of space that year and we still would have flooded. We will never contain mother nature.

I would consider one flood in 65 years to be pretty good "flood control", it would have been so much worse without the dam. Its not "if" the river will flood again its "when", it might be next year, it might be 100 years. If you cant accept that uncertainty, then its time to move to higher ground.

The state voiced their concerns to the COE in January about the lake level and the snow pack and were told by the COE that they had everything under control.

The lake rising 15' or more from Jan - July is not one isolated incident in 65 years it has happened multiple times, It rose 19.5' in 1978, 14.5' in 1993, 15.0' in 1997, 16.9' in 2009, but only 13'8" in 2011 because it topped out. The severity of the 2011 flood was caused by the arrogance and mismanagement by the COE.

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