More Snow Next Week?

[Shockwave]

I am also getting tired of it already. And like some have said, it is a form of moisture, and we do need plenty of that.

 

[shorthairsrus]

Were making snow here in fargo --- we dont have enough ----- so were tapping the red river and every night at the fairgrounds they turn on about 6 or 7 snowmachines. Snow cross baby. I have heard a constant 2 stroke buzz going on for a month now and then at night the water is turned on and storm of snow is spewed. I really hope to see the need for snow machines next week and that fn storm is nothing but a overrated cry wolf call.

 

[BDub]

Latest from NWS Bismarck.

Issued at 303 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2022

Quasi-zonal flow Thursday will produce slightly warmer
temperatures. Friday a trough digs through The Rockies but
produces dry weather and temperatures close to average through
the period.

The bigger news is a possible system next Monday through
Wednesday. Models are starting to agree on a Colorado Low moving
through The Northern Plains. The GEFS mostly all have the storm
for North Dakota at the 00z run, with the exception of 3 members,
showing the possibility of getting missed. Another area to see
the uncertainty is in the clusters. They have timing uncertainty
for when the collocated upper level trough will move through. Very
breezy winds could be a factor for this system as the pressure
gradient for the surface low looks to be fairly tight during
period of the snow. The CPC is also hinting at above normal
precipitation over the next 6-10 days, showing the possibility of
this system to happen as well. The NBM has a 70-85 percent chance
of getting at least one inch across the forecast area, and a 40
percent chance of at least 6 inches centered over Bismarck.

Remember, this is 5-7 days out and a lot will most likely change
day to day.

 

[Rowdie]

I'd say we got 3 inches last night, and maybe an inch Monday night.

 

[Kurtr]

We got three inches down here last night

 

[NDwalleyes]

And to think it is only the first week of December. Things could get ugly on wildlife, ranchers, etc by the time spring rolls around. At this rate...50-60 inches of snow isn't going to be tough to attain this year.

 

[shorthairsrus]

LRC discussion at 2pm today. I heard 30 total for the east earlier --- lets see if they changed it.

 

[shorthairsrus]

I would so take 30 inches --- early spring and then rain from March until end of June. July every day a slight shower and temps around mid to upper 80s. Aug Sep too!!!!

You guys that wanted a nice fall --- fall end abruptly. Thats why i wish for summer maybe then i get a nice fall. If you say fall though the wind blows and the snow falls. Same with that other season starting with a S.

 

[watson]

rain from March until end of June. July every day a slight shower and temps around mid to upper 80s.

Do you raise and sell mosquitoes?

 

[Allen]

Well, there's surely something in the models for next week. Then again, a couple weeks ago there was a hint of a colorado low in the models for our area as well on days 6-8 of the models and it ended up disappearing with little fanfare. To give you an idea of the spread in the model runs this far out, go to this page: https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/gefs_plumes/index.html?stationname=KBIS

Try not to get too wrapped around the axle with regard to the outlier runs, the mets most often look for clusters in the modeling to identify the most likely scenario. Doesn't mean the outlier can't happen, but you would lose pretty regularly if you were betting on it to come true. Of course, as we get closer to the start of the event, the range of outcomes will start to concentrate and give you a better idea than what a single snapshot of a given model does.

 

[Allen]

Thankfully I finally put the snowblower on my lawn tractor last night.

 

[Mort]

So are the models saying the southern half part of the state from border to border suppose to get the most snow this year? You BisMan peeps are so lucky to get all that snow.......j/k

 

[shorthairsrus]

LRC looks like shit --- i am selling my ice fishing equipment and going to florida to go fishing. Fk it

 

[BDub]

In Boy Scouts I took one saying to heart. Be prepared. Thus any mention of a storm gets me moving. No matter what being outside cleaning snow beats listening to the wife.
The local forecast discussion by NWS is great. So is the new weather meteorologist at kfyr. He goes into great detail about forecasting weather. It's not so easy.

 

[NDwalleyes]

Well, there's surely something in the models for next week. Then again, a couple weeks ago there was a hint of a colorado low in the models for our area as well on days 6-8 of the models and it ended up disappearing with little fanfare. To give you an idea of the spread in the model runs this far out, go to this page: https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/gefs_plumes/index.html?stationname=KBIS

Try not to get too wrapped around the axle with regard to the outlier runs, the mets most often look for clusters in the modeling to identify the most likely scenario. Doesn't mean the outlier can't happen, but you would lose pretty regularly if you were betting on it to come true. Of course, as we get closer to the start of the event, the range of outcomes will start to concentrate and give you a better idea than what a single snapshot of a given model does.

Thanks Allen. Great stuff.....A true "Legendary Member" would also post his user name and password for the NOAA system so we can really dive into things!!

 

[watson]

LRC looks like shit --- i am selling my ice fishing equipment and going to florida to go fishing. Fk it

Lrc, that's as big a joke as the regular forecast. 'There's going to a big storm in February but we don't know where'.. no shit

 

[Allen]

Thanks Allen. Great stuff.....A true "Legendary Member" would also post his user name and password for the NOAA system so we can really dive into things!!

Hah, they take computer security quite seriously. We use CAC cards on our PCs. Then we also have AWIPS (Advanced Weather Information Processing System) which is Linux based and about as complicated as GIS to first learn how to navigate.

 

[NDwalleyes]

Hah, they take computer security quite seriously. We use CAC cards on our PCs. Then we also have AWIPS (Advanced Weather Information Processing System) which is Linux based and about as complicated as GIS to first learn how to navigate.

I'm sure they do! The young kid from Texas gave me a nickel tour of your systems when I was down there. Are you aware of a public site for plume information?

 

[Allen]

I'm sure they do! The young kid from Texas gave me a nickel tour of your systems when I was down there. Are you aware of a public site for plume information?

Plume? As in hazmat plumes?

I haven't tried it, but go to this site: https://www.ready.noaa.gov/HYSPLIT.php. It looks like HYSPLIT is publicly available for downloading and installing on your PC, but I don't have any idea how well it runs outside of our network since it needs to grab our weather forecast in a gridded format.

 

[NDbowman]

Snodgrass talks about the upcoming storm at about the 13:00 minute mark. Some pretty big numbers in his snow totals but he says not to take that as gospel. I hope the shit stays south.